ALABAMA: No 'Miracle' Expected
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After beating a religious-right opponent in the primary, Gov. Bob Riley (R) is on his way to a second term. His opponent, Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley (D) said it would take "a minor miracle" for her to win.
ARKANSAS: Presidential Politics Weigh In
Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) is leaving the statehouse after 10 years and 110 pounds. Huckabee's dramatic weight loss has made him a national figure for physical fitness and health advocacy. It has also contributed to speculation that he will run for the 2008 GOP presidential nomination.
State Attorney General Michael Beebe (D) and former representative Asa Hutchinson (R) are battling to succeed Huckabee. President Bush is coming in to boost Hutchinson's campaign on the eve of the election, but Beebe recently welcomed favorite son and former president Bill Clinton, and the odds strongly favor the Democrat.
FLORIDA: Crucial and Excruciating to GOP
Florida is the epicenter of two Republican debacles this year. One is the Mark Foley scandal, the other the dismal Senate campaign of Rep. Katherine Harris (R). Both have made the climate more difficult for Republicans in an otherwise red state.
Harris, best known for her role as Florida secretary of state during the 2000 presidential-election recount, has been such a weak candidate that Sen. Bill Nelson (D) is coasting to a second term and has helped put a better gloss on the Democratic brand in the process.
In the race to succeed Gov. Jeb Bush (R), Attorney General Charlie Crist (R) came out of the primary as the favorite, and he has heavily outspent his less-known rival, Rep. Jim Davis (D). But polls have tightened. The president will campaign Monday in the conservative Florida Panhandle in an eleventh-hour effort to keep this presidential battleground in GOP hands.
Three Republican-held House seats are in jeopardy. When Foley resigned over sexually explicit messages to former House pages, his 16th District seat became vulnerable, in part because Foley's name will still be on the ballot. Democrat Tim Mahoney gained an immediate advantage, but the GOP stand-in, state Rep. Joe Negron, has fought back, and the national party put considerable money into the race. It's a tossup.
Rep. Clay Shaw (R) has faced a succession of challenging races in the 22nd District, and this year may be his toughest, against state Sen. Ron Klein. Shaw has distanced himself from Bush and even ran a radio ad touting his cooperation with President Bill Clinton, who was coming to the area to raise money for Klein.
Harris's district is the other one Democrats are targeting. Auto dealer Vern Buchanan (R) has called in both President Bush and first lady Laura Bush to help him stave off businesswoman Christine Jennings. Democrats were more confident two weeks ago. Republicans worry, knowing this is the kind of race they need to win to keep the majority.
Davis's 11th District seat is likely to stay Democratic, with Hillsborough County Commissioner Kathy Castor his successor. In the 9th District, state Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R) is favored to succeed his father, Michael Bilirakis (R), but that race is more competitive.
GEORGIA: Republicans' Cause for Hope
The Peach State is one of the few bright spots for Republicans nationally.
Former representatives Max Burns (R) and Mac Collins (R) have run solid campaigns as they seek to unseat Reps. John Barrow (D) and Jim Marshall (D), respectively.




