CONNECTICUT: House Incumbents Nervous

It's a rare occurrence in politics these days when more than half of a state's congressional delegation is in electoral jeopardy. But in Connecticut, GOP Reps. Rob Simmons, Chris Shays and Nancy Johnson all face serious challenges on Tuesday, with most independent observers predicting at least one of them will fall.

Johnson appears to be the most imperiled. Her longevity -- she has held her seat since 1983 -- may be working against her, as state Sen. Chris Murphy (D) has labeled her part of the problem in Washington. Johnson has spent more than $4 million on her reelection, but polls show her support still hovering in the 40s.

Shays's reelection has turned into a referendum on Iraq policy as his opponent, 2004 nominee Diane Farrell (D), has focused almost exclusively on the issue in her ads. Shays remains well liked in his affluent southwestern Connecticut district, but his support for the war in Iraq may lead voters to opt for Farrell. Polling shows a jump ball.

Simmons's 2nd District is, by the numbers, the worst of the three for Republicans. John Kerry won it by 10 points in 2004. Former state representative Joe Courtney (D) is much improved as a candidate since his race in 2002. But Simmons has run an extremely competent race, and even Democrats consider this seat the least likely of the three to switch hands.

In August, many concluded that Sen. Joe Lieberman's political career was over. Deserted by Democratic primary voters for his position on the war, the three-term senator lost to first-time candidate Ned Lamont. On primary night, Lieberman announced he would run as an independent. He turned the focus of the race from a debate over Iraq to a discussion of Lamont's lack of political experience. In doing so, Lieberman has probably ensured himself another term.

Gov. Jodi Rell (R) is expected to defeat her challenger, New Haven Mayor John DeStefano (D).

MAINE: Beleaguered but Safe Governor

Gov. John Baldacci (D) looked vulnerable a few months ago, in part because his many rivals were taking advantage of the state's Clean Election Act to draw public money to match his privately funded campaign.

But state Sen. Chandler Woodcock (R) has been a weak opponent, and state Rep. Barbara Merrill (I) and Green Party candidate Pat LaMarche are way behind. Baldacci is likely to win but may not hit 50 percent.

Sen. Olympia Snowe (R) will probably do far better than that in winning her third term over farmer Jean Hay Bright.

MASSACHUSETTS: The First Black Governor?

Retiring Gov. Mitt Romney (R), off in pursuit of the GOP presidential nomination, has left his party looking at a likely defeat in the race to pick his successor. As Romney's home-state ratings have tumbled, Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R) has fallen further behind Deval Patrick (D), the Clinton administration assistant attorney general for civil rights.

Patrick, who would be Massachusetts's first black governor, came roaring out of a three-way primary and has withstood heavy attacks from Healey on his record as a criminal defense lawyer.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Vulnerable House Seats

This was the only state that went from Republican to Democratic in 2004, and Democrats would like to keep the momentum going. Gov. John Lynch (D) has been running away from Jim Coburn (R), which leaves all the attention on two Republican House members.