Fla. Candidate Battles the Anti-GOP Tide

House Hopeful in Heavily Republican District Tries to Rally Disenchanted Voter Base

BRADENTON, Fla., Nov. 4 -- Vern Buchanan is the Republican congressional candidate in this heavily Republican district, hoping to succeed a onetime GOP icon, Rep. Katharine Harris. The self-made businessman has given his campaign $5.5 million, the third-largest cash dump in the history of House races. He has campaigned with President Bush, first lady Laura Bush, Gov. Jeb Bush and Vice President Cheney; today's guest was former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani.

But he's still in trouble.

Buchanan's own polls show him slightly behind Christine Jennings, a fiscally conservative Democrat who was once Buchanan's banker, and Jennings's polls show him 11 points behind. Even in southwestern Florida, a region of transplanted Midwestern chamber-of-commerce types, it's a tough year to be a GOP candidate. And Buchanan is a Michigan native who chairs the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

The implosion of Harris's Senate campaign is an unusual case, and it's no surprise that Democrats have a chance to take Rep. Mark Foley's Florida seat in the wake of the congressional page scandal. But Buchanan's predicament has Republicans worried about a broader backlash in Florida and beyond. Buchanan acknowledges that voters are disgusted with Washington; he says he is, too. He has often denounced "the mess in Congress," without mentioning that his own party is in control.

But as Election Day approaches, Buchanan and his famous surrogates are starting to remind Republicans that this race could swing the House, that a vote for the prim and moderate Jennings is a vote for House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to be speaker, and for liberals such as Rep. Charles B. Rangel (D-N.Y.) to run powerful committees. For Buchanan and other Republicans facing difficult races in unexpected places, it's rally-the-base time.

Florida's well-oiled Republican machine is a Buchanan advantage; Democrats are not well organized around here. But Buchanan was bloodied by a bitter five-candidate GOP primary, and the losers have not rallied around his candidacy. And Republican leaders say the slew of bad news in Iraq and Washington has discouraged some of their reliable voters.

"It's a tough environment, and we need to galvanize the base," Buchanan said over lunch at a Bradenton diner. "Nancy Pelosi, being from San Francisco, she's a lot more liberal than this district. There are a lot of seniors here, and they're concerned about Charlie Rangel raising their taxes. So that really helps."

One problem for Buchanan is that Jennings is also a Midwestern chamber-of-commerce type, an Ohio bank teller who became a Sarasota bank president. She was one of the first community leaders to welcome Buchanan to Florida, and they served together on several local boards. Buchanan says she's "a very nice lady," even though she's running ads attacking him as shady and corrupt. She trounced a more liberal candidate in the primary, and she has staked out centrist positions on Iraq and government spending.

By contrast, Buchanan is the kind of conservative Republican candidate who flourished in 2002 and 2004, a strong supporter of President Bush, the GOP congressional leadership and the war in Iraq. He ran to the right in the primary and has attacked Jennings as soft on terror, taxes and immigration in the general election.

But 2006 is a different year. Bush is unpopular in most parts of the state. Harris is a drag at the top of the ticket, and Buchanan can barely bring himself to admit he supports her. And southwestern Florida is a relatively moderate Republican district; four members of the local GOP executive committee quit after the primaries to endorse Jennings.

"Everyone assumed that in this district, the winner of the Republican primary would be a lock," said Bradenton Mayor Wayne H. Poston, who hosted Buchanan and Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.) at City Hall on Thursday. "But people are really fed up, and Jennings doesn't really seem like a Democrat. We've got a lot of work to do."

Buchanan seems like a central-casting candidate, a tall and affable car dealer who looks a bit like a less craggy Nick Nolte. But he's a bit awkward on the trail. On Thursday, he stumbled through an impromptu speech to some firefighters, explaining that "we've got a lot of issues, you know, with the war on terror and all," before Martinez cut him off. On a tour of the police station, he asked one perplexed officer whether the police academy was like the movies: "You know, Police Academy 1, 2, and 3."

He's also still learning the issues. For example, he criticized Jennings for supporting guest-worker programs and "amnesty" for illegal immigrants. But then he said it's not practical to try to deport everyone who's in the country illegally. So what should happen to them? "I haven't sorted that out exactly," he said.

None of that seemed to matter to partisan Republicans in Bradenton, the ones who said they read conservative blogs and responded to questions about Foley and the Jack Abramoff corruption scandal with reminders about 1980s Democratic sex scandals and the current bribery investigation of Rep. William J. Jefferson (D-La.). They said fears of Pelosi as speaker and a Democratic sweep will be a powerful force on Election Day and predicted that the recent gaffe by Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) would help pull them to victory. On the trail with Buchanan, Martinez said the Foley scandal was like a nuclear explosion with no fallout -- terrible for Florida Republicans at the time, but without lasting effects.

"In the last few days, it feels like our own people have stopped being mad at us," Martinez said. "Now they're starting to say, 'Oh, my gosh. What happens if we lose?' "

But independents seem to be tilting heavily toward Jennings. The big issue is Iraq, and although Jennings does not have a clear policy -- she says she's furious that Bush doesn't have a strategy but doesn't know what the strategy should be -- it's enough for many voters that she's critical of Bush. Buchanan doesn't have an Iraq policy either, except to accuse Jennings of a "cut-and-run mentality." He says he's unhappy with the current situation and expects Bush to make "serious changes" soon but doesn't say what they should be.

Judy Frey, 65, a retired businesswoman in Bradenton, calls herself a "middle-of-the-road" independent voter, but she says Iraq is a disaster and she's voting for Jennings. She said most of her Republican friends are, too, even though they are backing GOP state attorney general Charlie Crist for governor.

"Let me tell you, it's a very strange thing to hear these staunch Republicans say they're voting for a Democrat," Frey said. "It's really hard for them. They're not happy about it. But they're furious about the war."