Democrats, on the Offensive, Could Gain Both Houses

In Connecticut, Republicans are deeply worried about veteran Reps. Nancy L. Johnson and Christopher Shays and are only slightly more assured about Rep. Rob Simmons. Johnson appears to be the most endangered of the three.

The Iraq issue has dominated the Connecticut Senate race between Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman, who is running as an independent, and the man who beat him in the Democratic primary, businessman Ned Lamont. Lieberman's appeal to Republicans on his support of the war could help prop up the embattled GOP House trio.

Republicans face difficulties in virtually every region. There are multiple opportunities for Democrats in Florida, Kentucky, Colorado, Minnesota and Arizona. Single seats are at risk of switching in California, Iowa, Idaho, Illinois, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Texas, Virginia, Washington and Wyoming.

In addition to the 10 seats likely to fall to Democrats, there are 30 tossup races -- out of 63 competitive races -- in the closing days of the campaign, 29 of them for seats held by Republicans. The lone Democratic-held tossup is in Georgia.

The House has not changed hands without the Senate following suit since the popular election of senators began early in the 20th century. But the odds are steeper for the Democrats in their bid to take over the Senate, because they must win at least four states that Bush carried in 2000 and 2004, three of them with incumbent Republicans.

Democrats are favored to defeat Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum with state Treasurer Robert P. Casey Jr. and Ohio Sen. Mike DeWine with Rep. Sherrod Brown. Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln D. Chafee (R) has been trailing former attorney general Sheldon Whitehouse (D) in a state where Bush's popularity numbers are among the lowest in the nation.

Democrats have counted Montana Sen. Conrad Burns (R) as the fourth likeliest pickup, but his race against state Senate Co-President Jon Tester has narrowed in the final two weeks. A Mason-Dixon poll yesterday showed the race tied.

If Burns were to fall in Montana, Democrats still would have to prevail in two of the other three most competitive Republican-held states. In Virginia, Sen. George Allen (R) has been hurt by his own campaign gaffes, and Republicans are increasingly nervous that he will lose to Reagan administration Navy secretary James Webb, the Democratic nominee.

Republicans are more optimistic about former Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker winning the seat of retiring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist against the challenge of Rep. Harold E. Ford Jr. Ford is described by many Democrats as their ablest candidate of the year, but he is going against the history of Tennessee, which has never elected an African American to the Senate.

In Missouri, neither Sen. James M. Talent (R) nor Democrat Claire McCaskill has been able to gain an advantage. McCaskill has a strong urban base in Kansas City and St. Louis but must hold down Talent's advantage in the rural areas, where Bush campaigned late last week.

Maryland is one of four other states drawing significant money and attention. Rep. Benjamin L. Cardin (D) is a veteran Baltimore politician running in a Democratic state in a Democratic year. But Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele (R) has proved to be a strong campaigner in the fight to succeed retiring Sen. Paul S. Sarbanes (D).

In New Jersey, the race between appointed Sen. Robert Menendez (D) and Republican state Sen. Thomas H. Kean Jr. has been dominated by corruption charges stemming from Menendez's history in Hudson County. As elsewhere in the Northeast, the war in Iraq weighs heavily in this Democratic state.