Analysis: Verdict May Not Stop Violence

Iraqis hold up image of Saddam Hussein and a national flag as they protest his death sentence verdict, in his hometown of Tikrit,130 kilometers (80 miles) north of Baghdad, Sunday, Nov. 5, 2006. Iraq's High Tribunal on Sunday found Saddam Hussein guilty of crimes against humanity and sentenced him to hang, as the visibly shaken former leader shouted "God is great!" (AP Photo/Bassem Daham) (Bassim Daham - AP)

AMMAN, Jordan -- The future of Iraq may depend little on whether Saddam Hussein hangs. The Sunni insurgency is so deeply entrenched and sectarian bloodlust so strong that Iraq seems set to continue spiraling into violence _ regardless of its former president's fate.

Some fear that the Saddam verdict, by angering the Sunni minority, could intensify the violence once a curfew in Baghdad is lifted. Others say they hope the verdict gives Iraqis a chance "to unite and build a better future," in the words of the U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad.

But in the end, Saddam's fate is not what's driving the violence in Iraq now. Instead, religious, nationalistic and sectarian passions have taken over and are tearing the country apart.

Even if it causes a spasm of violence, Saddam's verdict is just a symbol of the deeper, underlying problems. Sunnis are alarmed at the prospect of Shiite domination. Shiites are fed up with attacks by Sunni extremists.

Without an effective government to protect them, both communities have become locked in a murderous cycle of reprisal killings that looks set to continue.

The insurgency started with Saddam loyalists.

But it long ago expanded into a multi-faceted conflict waged by different groups with different goals: nationalists seeking to drive foreigners from Iraqi soil; Sunni militants fearing domination by the Shiites; and religious zealots waging a global jihad against America.

The death of Saddam would matter little to religious extremists, for example, willing to sacrifice their own lives for their cause.

Likewise with the sectarian violence that has pushed the country to the brink of civil war. It started when Sunni insurgents began attacking Shiite civilians, considering them collaborators with the Americans.

With U.S. and Iraqi forces unable to stop those attacks, Shiite militias took the law into their own hands, sending death squads to exact vengeance on Sunni civilians. Since the bombing of a Shiite shrine in Samarra in February, sectarian reprisal killings have spiraled out of control.

Those hatreds will continue to drive the violence _ regardless of what happens to Saddam. Neither the Americans nor their Iraqi partners have found a way to control them.

It's not that Saddam's fate has no effect at all: The sectarian fighting has, indeed, served to boost his image among many of his fellow Sunnis, even those who were happy to see him ousted from power three years ago.