President Who Sees in Absolutes Awaits Voters' Definitive Answer

"I need some good news, sir," Kudlow said.

"Yes, I do, too," Bush said.

"I really do," Kudlow repeated.

"You're talking to Noah about the flood," Bush said. "I do, too."

Bush seeks solace in history, certain that he will be vindicated, much as Harry S. Truman was unpopular in his day but is revered today. And Bush expresses exasperation that he cannot find a tangible yardstick to point to victory in Iraq.

"I don't know what Harry Truman was feeling like, or Franklin Roosevelt," he told the conservative journalists. "I'm sure there were moments of high frustration for them. But I do know that at Midway, they were eventually able to say two carriers were sunk and one was damaged. We don't get to say that. A thousand of the enemy killed, or whatever the number was. It's happening; you just don't know it. And there's no scorecard."

The elections, at least, come with a scorecard. But Bush has not maintained a particularly hectic pace. Whereas he hit 15 states in the final five days before the 2002 midterm elections, he visited 10 in the same period this year. He dropped off the trail for 24 hours over the weekend to celebrate the first lady's 60th birthday and their 29th anniversary.

When he went back out, he stuck to conservative areas without major races. That's because Crist is not the only Republican eager to keep a distance from a president with a 40 percent approval rating -- just the only one impolitic enough to snub him after inviting him on election eve.

Bush's last stops were chosen out of loyalty to allies rather than any effort to make a difference in a tossup race. He flew to Bentonville, Ark., for Asa Hutchinson, a former administration official running for governor, then to Dallas for Gov. Rick Perry. Neither race is close; Hutchinson trails by 17 points, and Perry leads by 14.

Bush's stump speech the past few weeks has underscored a with-us-or-against-us worldview. Democrats and some Republicans opposed warrantless surveillance of telephone calls of people with suspected ties to terrorism, objecting to unchecked executive power and arguing that officials should still get warrants from a secret intelligence court. Likewise, Democrats and initially some Republicans opposed redefining Geneva Conventions protections for prisoners and permitting harsh interrogation, preferring more traditional practices.

In the version Bush offers campaign audiences, that boils down to the Democrats not wanting to fight terrorists at all. Democrats, he said in Missouri, "oppose listening in on terrorist conversations" and "oppose letting the CIA detain and question the terrorists who might know what those [next] plots are." As for Iraq, he said in Texas, if Democrats get their way, "the terrorists win and America loses."

One way or the other, someone loses Tuesday. Bush and Rove have remained outwardly confident in the face of the polls in part because they have so often prevailed over conventional wisdom. If polls were right, then John F. Kerry would be president, they tell doubters. Both bristle at the idea that the Washington elite has already counted them out.

Still, Bush advisers understand the odds against them. They have written off 10 or 12 "scandal seats," where ethical lapses have dominated. Democrats need 15 to take over the House, so victory in just a few tossup races would be enough. If that happens, the White House argument is likely to be that Republicans lost because of isolated corruption cases, not broader discontent with Bush or the war.

What Bush would do then becomes the next question. He arrived in Washington promising to be a uniter, not a divider, but the political polarization in the country is worse than when he took over. As recently as last month, his spokesman said that if nothing else, Bush wants to use his last two years to "detoxify" Washington -- and then Bush headed out to the campaign trail to warn that if Democrats win, "America loses."

How would he reconcile these competing instincts? The desire to be a healer and the surety that his way is the right way? The decider will have to decide.