Changing Pattern Of N.Va. Voting Cited as Pivotal

And it is significant that fast-growing Loudoun and Prince William counties, which broke years of tradition last year by supporting Democrat Kaine in the governor's race, remained in the fold for Webb yesterday, albeit with smaller margins than Kaine enjoyed.

It means that in the past three years, the region has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee, governor candidate and Senate hopeful, respectively. "I think that trend is going to continue rather than change," Kaine said in an interview on election night.

But some other trends showed that the area, especially the outer suburbs, are hardly Democratic strongholds. Though Northern Virginia as a whole opposed the constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriages, Loudoun, Prince William and the other outer counties joined the rest of the state in approving it.

And Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William supported the two Republican congressmen, Thomas M. Davis III and Frank R. Wolf, who have represented the area for years.

Wolf won 57 percent of the vote against his well-financed but politically inexperienced Democratic rival, Judy Feder, below his average totals. "Republican numbers were down across the country," campaign manager Dan Scandling said. "To sit there and say that Frank Wolf's numbers were down because everything's changing just is not accurate. . . . It was the environment. It wasn't some huge demographic swing."

Likewise, Davis's 55 percent was his smallest winning percentage since he took the seat from a Democrat in 1994, but Davis downplayed its significance. "This wasn't a Northern Virginia phenomenon," he said. "This was people saying, 'Tom, you've done a great job, but we've got to send a message to George Bush.' You've got to take a look at the context of the year."

But Davis, who is mentioned as a possible candidate for the Senate when Sen. John W. Warner (R) decides to retire, has been outspoken about his state party's lack of outreach to the Washington suburbs and his view that the party spends too much time on social issues at the expense of the more practical governance issues of education and transportation.

Added Bolling: "We have to show a real interest in the needs and challenges of Northern Virginia."

Virginia Tech demographer Robert E. Lang said: "Quality of life, fixing the urban space of Northern Virginia, is the big political question. How do you make what we built . . . a better place?"

Kaine said those kinds of issues favor his party because former governor Mark R. Warner convinced Virginians that Democrats are good at governing. Like Warner, Kaine has high popularity ratings, and polls show that voters have a sunny outlook about the state's direction.

Kaine believes those issues translate well to other parts of his increasingly suburban state. He'll push that message next year, when the entire General Assembly is up for election; he wants a Democratic majority.

And he said Webb's showing Tuesday "puts [Virginia] in play" in the 2008 presidential contest. If Warner, who recently abandoned his idea of running for president, were the Democratic vice presidential nominee, he said, Virginia would be a logical place for his party to expand its base.

Staff writer Amy Gardner and staff researcher Meg Smith contributed to this report.