GOP Moderates' Ouster Widens House Divide

"My sense is the 2nd District [Bass's seat] is going to be very tough for Republicans to win back," said Tom Rath, Republican national committeeman from New Hampshire.

Other Northern or Midwestern seats that switched this week may prove more difficult for Democrats to hold. Among them are the 2nd District in Kansas, where Rep. Jim Ryun (R) was defeated, even though Bush carried the district with 59 percent of the vote in 2004, and Ohio's 18th District, which Bush won with 57 percent but which fell to the Democrats on Tuesday largely because of the corruption conviction of former representative Robert W. Ney (R).

The elimination of GOP moderates could push House Republicans farther to the right. By Schaller's analysis, 10 of the 28 most liberal members of the Republican conference were defeated. With fewer moderates, Republicans are less likely to feel pressure to bow to the wishes of moderates, especially on fiscal issues.

Most of the leading candidates for GOP party leadership are promising a return to conservative principles, especially on fiscal issues. Few are calling for more compromise. "We did not just lose our majority -- we lost our way," Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.), a candidate for minority leader, wrote to his colleagues.

Whether a likely shift to the right within the House GOP caucus will be offset by a move toward the center forced by the new crop of freshman Democrats is a matter of debate inside the Democratic Party. Centrists see the new crop of Democrats enhancing their ranks, but progressives say they will have even more new allies.

Newcomers such as Democrat Brad Ellsworth of Indiana are social conservatives, opposed to abortion and gun control. They have told leaders that they will lose their seats in 2008 if the party moves too far to the left. But most of the Democrats who won favor abortion rights, and an analysis by the liberal Campaign for America's Future concludes that skeptics of free trade agreements will replace advocates of such pacts in 15 districts.

The new House map also presents potential problems for Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), expected to become the speaker in the 110th Congress. Democrats won power by sweeping the Northeast, a region with a large number of liberal voters but also by picking off less liberal districts in the Midwest and other regions.

"We have to constantly remind everybody that members-elect have about 24 hours to celebrate, and then they are targets," said Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.). "They have to defend their seats, and they cannot do that unless they have performed for their constituents," who are not as liberal as many of the party's activists.

Rep. Steny H. Hoyer (D-Md.) said: "If you look at the folks who were elected around the country, we were contesting swing districts. By definition, candidates in swing districts lean to the middle. They ran in districts that clearly had Republicans" in large numbers.

Both the president and the new Democratic leadership will find the House a test of their leadership skills.