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The Election Is Over. Let the Election Begin.
But a Democratic victory is far from certain. The party could renominate one of the duds it put on the ballot the past two elections. Or, it could suffer amnesia and again nominate someone who couldn't find the center of the road if two bright yellow lines were painted on it. Hillary Rodham Clinton has been trying to steer toward the middle since the day she became a Yankees fan and a senator from New York, but she'd need her husband's skills and charisma to make Middle America ignore her Senate voting record or forget her efforts to socialize health care. Her record will hurt her as a national candidate as much as it will help her in the Democratic primaries.
We know what winning Democrats look like: Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. Carter is the last Democrat to receive more than 50 percent of the popular vote, in 1976, and Clinton is the only Democrat to win election twice since Franklin D. Roosevelt. Former Virginia governor Mark R. Warner looked most like Carter and Clinton. But he dropped out -- to sighs of relief from Republicans everywhere.
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One year from now, anyone who isn't a front-runner will face certain death unless he or she can alter the dynamics with bold gambits or flashy gimmicks. Look for candidates to announce their running mates before the primary voting even starts. Look for the campaigns to get uglier earlier, as the pack tries to take down a leading contender. That's the one sure bet: Folks on both sides will have to get creative and reckless -- and it will be one heck of a show.
Ed Rogers is chairman of Barbour Griffith & Rogers, a government relations firm. He was deputy manager of the 1988 presidential campaign of George H.W. Bush.
