Election Alters Trade Climate

Analysts have noted that expanding trade has historically been a bipartisan effort. A dozen years ago, President Clinton, a Democrat, relied largely on Republican support in Congress to gain passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement. Trade proponents said that growing commerce has created new markets for U.S. businesses abroad, while stocking shelves at home with low-priced goods.

"Globalized sourcing has brought enormous benefits to the American consumer," said Hallock Northcott, president of the American Association of Exporters and Importers.

For now, both sides in Washington are speaking the language of bipartisanship, a dynamic that is expected to hold for at least a while as some relatively uncontroversial trade issues come before Congress.

Administration officials hope to gain congressional authority soon to renew a set of reduced tariffs for Andean countries, a form of aid in the U.S. campaign to discourage their production of narcotics. Congress must also take up renewal of reduced duties for the world's poorest countries, while extending parts of a preferential trade accord with African nations.

After that, the rhetoric of cooperation could be tested, as the Bush administration seeks approval for free-trade agreements it has already struck with Peru and Colombia. A U.S. government official who spoke on condition that he not be named because he lacks authorization said the administration was "not looking to reopen negotiations" on those treaties. But a Democratic congressional aide involved in trade issues said the leadership would negotiate with the U.S. trade representative to ensure that labor protections are written into the treaties, along with beefed-up enforcement mechanisms. "We want to tighten that up," the aide said.

The details now rest with Baucus and Rep. Charles B. Rangel (D-N.Y.), who is expected to oversee the House Ways and Means Committee. While both presumptive chairman have pledged to engage the administration on trade, they are cognizant that at least some of the groundswell of support for their party was the result of disenchantment over U.S. job losses, including jobs moving overseas.

The fate of the president's fast-track authority may be a litmus test. Eight years ago, a Republican Congress did not renew Clinton's ability to negotiate trade pacts, with leaders in the House reluctant to hand the Democratic president a key victory ahead of the 2000 election. Democrats may make a similar calculation this time.

The administration is expected to make a final push to strike a deal with the European Union and developing nations on the now-stalled global tariff reduction talks known as the Doha round before Bush's existing fast-track authority expires.

That would kick the issue to the Democrats and perhaps test their cohesion, pitting some of the newcomers who are skeptical about trade against those worried about alienating business.

"The Democrats have rhetorically painted themselves into a corner," said Gary C. Hufbauer, a trade expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, in Washington. "The leadership doesn't want to be painted as obstructionist on trade."