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As Pressure for Talks Grows, Iran and Syria Gain Leverage
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Yet prospects of U.S. success are limited, analysts warn. At the negotiating table, Iran and Syria would for the first time hold the trump cards after years of public rebukes and punitive sanctions, and would see any overture by Washington as a win for them. The administration could have achieved far more if it had talked to both countries from a position of strength on the eve of war in 2003 or last year, analysts say.
"Neither Iran nor Syria will do a favor for the U.S. without wanting something back -- and what both countries want are things that the U.S. is not willing to give them," said Shaul Bakhash, a George Mason University expert on Iran.
Cooperating with the United States also carries dangers. "Syria and Iran both believe that the U.S. is tilting at windmills and will not lend their leverage to a venture which they see as doomed," said Joshua Landis, a University of Oklahoma specialist who recently spent a year as a Fulbright scholar in Damascus.
Both countries have limited ability to solve the complicated morass of problems in Iraq. In testimony yesterday before the Senate Armed Services Committee, the CIA director, Gen. Michael V. Hayden, said Iran and Syria have varying degrees of influence on Iraq.
"Clearly, both governments could do more. If our dialogue with them could convince them to do more, that their interests are not served by a fracturing of Iraq, then I would say that might be useful," Hayden said.
But on the biggest issue of preventing full-scale civil war, Iran may not be able to rein in Iraq's Shiite militias. "Lots of people in the Shiite community are happy to take Iranian money and arms but they are not willing to take Iranian orders," said Patrick Clawson of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Staff writer Dafna Linzer contributed to this report.
