By Michael D. Shear and Tim Craig
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, November 17, 2006; B05
RICHMOND, Nov. 15 -- Last week's defeat of Sen. George Allen has widened the rift between moderates and conservatives in Virginia's Republican Party, a rift that is likely to deepen at the GOP's annual meeting early next month.
Party leaders, elected Republicans and activists in both philosophical camps have been eager to blame one another for gridlock in the General Assembly and bitter disputes in the past. Now they are also looking to explain why they keep losing elections.
"It's cost us the governorship, and it's cost us the Senate seat," said Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R) of Fairfax, a leading moderate who argues that the Republican Party has ignored Northern Virginia and its growing number of Democratic voters at its own peril. "A lot of it is cultural. There is a cultural divide. You don't [win] by continuing to run people from one region exclusively."
Conservative Fairfax activist James Parmelee shot back that Republicans are losing because they have failed to take principled anti-tax stands, such as those championed by House Speaker William J. Howell (R-Stafford). "Really, the message is, be more like the House of Delegates," Parmelee said Wednesday.
In this year's state legislative session, the House kept a hard line on tax increases while the state Senate, also run by Republicans, sought to raise taxes to pay for transportation improvements, a key issue for Northern Virginia.
This week, the state party's top officials, Chairman Kate Obenshain Griffin and Executive Director Shawn Smith, resigned, taking responsibility for presiding over two devastating losses: Allen's and Jerry W. Kilgore's in the governor's race last year.
A replacement for Griffin is expected soon. Some top Republicans are hoping the party taps former National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie, a Fairfax County resident and senior Allen adviser who would bring star power and an ability to raise money for the strapped party. A decision will be announced at the party's annual meeting, called "the Advance," early next month.
Allen's loss to Democrat James Webb punctuates the dilemma for Republicans during the last three major elections in Virginia: Self-described independent voters are running away from the party.
In the Nov. 7 election, Allen won 44 percent of those votes, according to exit polls. Six years earlier, he won 58 percent of the votes cast by independents, a group that makes up about a third of Virginia voters.
Allen also saw the modest Democratic advantage in Northern Virginia during his 2000 race grow into a tidal wave this time. Six years ago, he lost the region by six percentage points. On Tuesday, voters in Northern Virginia preferred Webb by 20 points. Democrats also made gains in the growing Hampton Roads area and the Richmond suburbs.
"There are a lot of other reasons for his defeat," said Del. Thomas Davis Rust (R-Fairfax), a leading moderate in the House. "But his message, obviously, didn't resonate. A continuing of the no-tax mantra is failing. Sooner or later, you have to face reality that you do have to pay for things."
The challenge for Virginia's Republicans is similar to that of the party across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, where voters who live outside big cities have been trending Democratic. Last week, suburban Philadelphia, which once served as the backbone of the state's GOP base, voted out two incumbent Republican congressmen.
"Virginia is a Southern state, but Northern Virginia is a northern suburb," said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report. "The northern suburbs have become a problem for Republicans."
As they prepare for the party's annual meeting and the 2007 legislative session, Virginia's conservatives are fighting back. As they did after Kilgore's loss, they blame Allen's defeat on a reluctance by mainstream Republicans to stick to conservative principles.
They argue that excessive spending under the Republican-controlled Congress turned off conservative voters this year. And in Virginia, they say the decisions by some moderate Republicans in the General Assembly to back tax increases in 2004 and 2005 have weakened the party's conservative brand.
"Those votes are easily gettable by going back to what we actually believe in," Parmelee said.
Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R) said the Virginia Republican Party needs to find a way to convert its conservative philosophy into solutions for problems that Northern Virginia residents care about, such as traffic and underperforming schools.
"These last couple election results should be a call to arms," Bolling said. "I think it is important for the Republican Party to remain committed to conservative values, lower taxes, less government, individual rights and responsibilities. We are the party that believes values still matter to Virginians, but at the same time it is important to talk about how our values relate to issues."
On Wednesday, Bolling sent an e-mail to supporters titled, "Where does the GOP go from here?" He said he will form two commissions, one of party activists and the other of business and civic leaders, which will be charged with crafting "100 ideas for the future of Virginia" on education, public safety, transportation, health care and the environment.
"The people of Virginia want leaders who will offer a positive vision for the future, and that is what we must do if we want to remain the majority party," Bolling said in his e-mail.
Rothenberg said the challenge for Republicans is to find candidates who can appeal to suburban voters on taxes and quality of life issues while avoiding hot-button cultural and social issues.
"Some of the Republican message sells wonderfully there, but some of it doesn't," Rothenberg said. "Republicans have got to find candidates that talk that lingo."
