COMING AND GOING

Merger Maybes

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UPRIGHT AND LOCKED

Merger Maybes

US Airways'$8 billion attempt to merge with a reluctant Delta is far from a done deal, but even the attempt will have an effect on travelers.

First, US Airways' gambit "might just be the opening round of a bidding war. What US Airways has done is put Delta in play," said Aaron Gelman, an airline industry expert at Northwestern University's Transportation Center. Moreover, analysts have long predicted consolidation in the U.S. airline industry. If the Justice Department approved the merger, it would be a green light that could set off a series of merger attempts, Gelman and others said.

Gelman predicted the department would force the sale of one of the two shuttle services that Delta and US Airways now operate out of Reagan National before approving the merger. Why? Because the merger would clearly affect competition in that market and because " politicians fly the shuttle a lot and aren't going to let that competition or that capacity go away," Gelman said. Other implications:

· Miles hounds would benefit. US Airways promises at its Web site: "We would combine the mileage balances" for frequent fliers on each airline," thus creating more opportunities to earn free tickets and opening more destinations for redeeming them.

· Capacity cuts are a sure thing, but not necessarily reductions in destinations. US Airways CEO Doug Parker said last week that "even with a 10 percent reduction in capacity, all existing U.S. destinations served today" by each airline "will remain part of the new, improved network."

· Price hikes are probable. However, the competition from low-cost carriers and the transparency of the online distribution system probably would have "a moderating influence on potential price i ncreases" after a merger of two giants, said Josh Romanow, a D.C. lawyer who specializes in aviation and travel law. Gelman predicted that "you're going to have higher prices for a while," but only until competitors have time to jump in.

US Airways suggests that prices could go down in some markets by noting in press materials that since merging with American West 14 months ago, "US Airways has lowered leisure fares in nearly 350 markets" by 10 to 75 percent.

The Business Travel Coalition, a consumer advocacy group, predicted in a release last week that the merger would mean higher ticket prices, at least for business travelers, but added that "the stability this merger could bring to the domestic U.S. industry . . . could justify the transaction."

For details:http://www.usairways.com.

HOLIDAY TRAVEL WATCH

Brace Yourself

Taking a trip this holiday season, the busiest travel period of the year? The chances of your flight being delayed are at least one in five, if last year's stats hold. (Last November, 20 percent of flights were late; in December, 29 percent.) Barring unusually bad weather, those rates will probably be similar this year, said Dean Headley, co-author of the annual Airline Quality Rating.

Chances your checked bags will be mishandled? Last year, about five bags were mishandled for every 1,000 passengers. New rules limiting liquids in carry-on bags initially increased checked baggage and pushed the mishandling rate to about eight bags per thousand. But airlines are adjusting to the crush; Headley predicts six to seven mishandled bags per 1,000 holiday travelers.

Chances of being bumped? In the first quarter of 2006, for every 10,000 passengers, 1.31 were bumped. The rate will probably increase over the holidays, Headley said, because people heading home for Thanksgiving or Christmas are usually less willing to give up their seats for incentives like free tickets.

Headley's advice: Arrive at the airport early. The usual rules of thumb vary by airport, airline and time of day, so check your airline's Web site.

CoGo's top plea: If you haven't flown lately, check the rules at http://www.tsa.gov/.

BARGAIN OF THE WEEK

Yes You Cancun

US Airways has sale fares to beach destinations in the Caribbean, Hawaii, Mexico and Florida. Fly Monday-Thursday from Reagan National to Cancun, Mexico, for example, for $250 plus $102 taxes. Book by Dec. 7 and travel by Feb. 15. Some destinations require an advance purchase, and holiday blackouts may apply. Receive an extra 5 percent discount by purchasing with a MasterCard (request code MCSUN). Purchase at www.usairways.com or pay $5 to $10 more by calling 800-428-4322.

Reporting: Cindy Loose

Help feed CoGo. Send travel news, road reports and juicy tattles to cogo@washpost.com.