Republicans Lost Ground With Latinos In Midterms

Conservatives trotted out the eloquent George P. Bush, the president's nephew, whose mother was born in Mexico, on the campaign trail and trumpeted high-level appointments such as then-White House Counsel Alberto R. Gonzales, now the attorney general.

"Democrats have a legacy with Hispanics. But Republicans have a modern strategy. Their strategy is changing the rules, and Democrats have to adapt," Rosenberg said testily at a news conference back then. "It is a sea change."

But a political wind in the House would change things again, starting in 2005. Republicans, led by Judiciary Committee Chairman F. James Sensenbrenner Jr. (Wis.), proposed one of the toughest immigration laws in history. The bill would make it a felony to assist any illegal immigrant, frightening the Roman Catholic Church. It worried rights groups because it would step up enforcement that could cost illegal immigrants their jobs, homes and lives.

Local and state governments passed measures that targeted illegal immigrants. And several local officials called on the federal government to train their police in techniques that would allow them to detain and deport illegal immigrants for offenses such as traffic violations.

Latino voters noticed that Senate Democrats largely supported legislation that would allow illegal immigrants to stay, if they were willing to pay a fine for sneaking into the country, learn English and go to the back of an employment line where newly authorized foreign workers would get first dibs on jobs.

Republican candidates said the Senate proposal was an amnesty.

The GOP stance "was wildly, wildly unpopular and in fact backfired on a number of candidates," said Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. "It helped mobilize Latino voters for the Democratic side."

But Rosemary Jenks, director of government relations for NumbersUSA, which opposes increased immigration, said the Latino vote was not that great a factor.

"The election had absolutely nothing to do with immigration," she said. "It was about George W. Bush and the war in Iraq. I think the public has made it very clear where they stand on immigration."