Dutch Election Reflects Europe's Anxiety

Dutch Labor Party leader Wouter Bos gives his reaction after exit poll results were announced in Amsterdam, Netherlands, Wednesday, Nov. 22, 2006. Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende's center-right Christian Democrats had a clear lead Wednesday over the leftist Labor Party, early returns suggested _ but not enough for a majority in the next parliament. (AP Photo/Bas Czerwinski) (Bas Czerwinski - AP)

THE HAGUE, Netherlands -- Following similar votes in Germany, Italy, the Czech Republic and Austria, the Netherlands woke up from elections this week that yielded no clear winner and promises a prolonged period of political drift and uncertainty.

This confusion at the ballot box underscores the difficulties Europe faces in adapting to an ever more globalized world. Voters across Europe feel deep anxiety over how to preserve their cultures without closing their doors to immigrants, how to protect their cherished welfare states without becoming an economic dinosaur, and how to channel the energies of the free market without turning into a cold, uncaring continent.

Uncertain that the leading left- and right-wing mainstream parties have answers to these questions, many voters in the Netherlands turned to the fringes to put the brakes on what they see as frightening change.

Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende, whose government championed bold economic reforms, could well be forced into a coalition with the center-left Labor Party _ a prospect experts call a recipe for political paralysis.

"The Dutch elections are somber news for Europe," said Dr. Mendeltje van Keulen of the Clingendael Institute foreign policy think tank. "There will not be a forward-looking strategy."

In Wednesday's election all centrist parties lost votes, including Balkenende's Christian Democrats and the Liberals, which together had pushed through a number of business-friendly, freemarket measures in recent years. The Socialist Party, led by a former communist, made the largest gains, nearly tripling its vote on the promise to shield the Dutch from the excesses of economic liberalism.

"The Dutch have had to live with painful reform," said Simon Tilford of the London-based Center for European Reform. "In many European countries it can be an uphill struggle. They are asked to give up things they cherish and they see few benefits."

German elections last year showed a similar ambivalence about change: The electorate seemed to sense that the strong economic medicine prescribed by Christian Democrat Angela Merkel was needed _ but feared its bitterness. In the end, neither right nor left gained a clear majority and Merkel was forced into an uneasy "grand coalition" with the Social Democrats.

Italy's election in April barely yielded a winner, with center-left leader Romano Prodi taking both houses of parliament by a razor-thin majority. At a time when tough economic reforms are sorely needed as Italy's artisan industries are being undercut by cheap labor in China and elsewhere, Prodi's wobbly coalition that ranges from communists to Christian Democrats holds only a one-seat majority in the Senate _ hardly a mandate for dramatic change.

Analysts say the Netherlands may be headed toward total deadlock, with no easy coalition government in sight because of the clashing vision on the economy and society.

The consequence of a Dutch grand coalition would be consensus economics where further reforms would be blunted by costly social measures. Despite the rush to the fringes, the Dutch could well be doomed to anemic policies where varied ideologies cancel each other out.

Despite enjoying a big majority, a grand coalition rarely makes for smooth government.

"In Germany, we see that the grand coalition is a lame duck. Merkel is trying hard and she has a vision and principles. But she is tied hand and fist to an unwieldy coalition," said Van Keulen. "It will be tough to get any momentum going."

Merkel's coalition has seen its popularity sag because of discord between the main parties and irritation over a planned tax hike. Typical of the clashing visions was a protracted fight over the reform of the health insurance system, which produced a muddled compromise.

In the Czech Republic, a postelection stalemate has now lasted five months, with the left and the right refusing to move an inch since the general elections in June that finished in a 100-100 tie between the two camps.

The gridlock is likely to lead to a grand coalition comprising all of the country's democratic parties.

October elections in Austria also produced deadlock. The leaders of the Social Democrats, which won the elections, and the ruling conservative People's Party, have resumed coalition talks following weeks of deadlock _ also looking for a grand coalition.

The electoral confusion across Europe has condemned the 25-nation European Union to the same mix of guarded innovation and half-hearted reforms of costly social protections.

"European policies are always dependent on national politics. The speed of national politics determines the speed of Europe," said Van Keulen.