History Offers Post-Midterm Survival Tips For President

Reagan turned his attention overseas, and overtures to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev led to a thaw in the Cold War and a major arms-control treaty. By 1988, Reagan was ready to challenge Congress, showing up at his State of the Union address with 3,300 pages in budget bills and vowing to veto any more like them. He left office with his popularity, and presidency, resurrected. "There's no question Reagan was buried by a lot of people," Donatelli said, "and it's pretty remarkable where he was a year and a half later."

Clinton's trial by ballot box came earlier in his tenure and sent him into a tailspin. "He really took it very personally," said Harold Ickes, who was his deputy chief of staff.

Not only did Clinton seek out self-help experts, he reopened a secret channel to an old adviser, Dick Morris, without telling his aides. He groped for a strategy as new Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) dominated Washington. Five months after the election, Clinton was still on his heels, insisting at a news conference that "the Constitution gives me relevance."

If that was the low point, the recovery arguably began the next day. After a federal building was bombed in Oklahoma City, Clinton gave voice to the nation's grief and resolve, serving as chaplain-in-chief. "In my view, he really became the president at that point," Ickes said. "He really struck a chord with the country that crossed party lines."

His confidence restored, Clinton began to maneuver with Gingrich, reaching a handshake deal in New Hampshire to review campaign finance and lobbying rules. Clinton wanted a budget deal, too, but Gingrich rejected him. Finally, Clinton called his bluff and the government briefly shut down. Clinton ended up looking strong again, while Gingrich was hurt by his complaints that he was made to disembark from Air Force One from the rear.

"That was a real turnaround for Bill Clinton," Panetta said. "Not only did it send the message to the American people about the real differences . . . but it gave him real momentum to move into the reelection effort." Clinton hit the campaign trail and crushed GOP Sen. Robert J. Dole (Kan.) to win a second term.

In the weeks since the Nov. 7 elections, Bush has already started down the paths forged by Reagan and Clinton. Just as Reagan fired Regan, Bush deferred to the Washington elite by ousting Rumsfeld and choosing Establishment favorite Robert M. Gates to replace him. He has left town to focus on foreign policy; he just got back from Asia and leaves today for Europe and the Middle East. By design or happenstance, he will have slept in the White House just 10 nights out of the first 25 after the elections.

Like Clinton, he has identified issues on which he thinks he can meet the opposition in the middle, including the minimum wage, education, immigration, energy and lobbying. But Bush has also signaled that he will fight over issues such as judicial nominations.

"Clinton had an imperative in '96 to get reelected," said Steve Elmendorf, a top House Democratic strategist at the time. "Bush, his imperative is more about his legacy. That gives him more running room to move to the center if he wants to and leave his party behind, because he doesn't have to run for reelection."

And yes, the Constitution gives him relevance. Now Bush's future depends on how he uses it. "You can never underestimate the power of the presidency because the president has the bully pulpit," said former representative Robert S. Walker (R-Pa.), a Gingrich ally. "And no matter how powerful you are on Capitol Hill, you can't really match that."