Sadr Casts a Shadow Over Bush-Maliki Meeting

Whether it was intended or not, Sadr's action also could boost Maliki's influence with the U.S. president, analysts and politicians said. "This will put him in a strong position with Mr. Bush," said Saleh Mutlaq, leader of the Iraqi National Dialogue Party, the second biggest Sunni Muslim party in parliament. "Then, the pressure on Maliki to dissolve the militias will be reduced."

Maliki needs Sadr's support to survive politically. He has preferred political dialogue to military confrontation in dealing with Sadr, even as pressure mounts from U.S. generals and lawmakers for tougher action. The prospect of dismantling such militias as the Mahdi Army is becoming more difficult with every attack and every bombing by Sunni Arab insurgents, which make more Shiites turn to the Mahdi Army for protection.

Many Shiites, including such leaders as Maliki, believe the U.S. military is unfairly targeting Shiite militias instead of focusing its efforts on taking down the Sunni insurgents.

"I think the Sadr City attacks make them feel they are being targeted by the Americans," Ali Dabbagh, an Iraqi government spokesman, said of the lawmakers' pullout from the government. "They want to show they are against the Americans."

Sadr has plenty of incentives to remain inside the Iraqi government. His efforts to wage a guerrilla war to drive out the U.S. forces, including brutal confrontations in Najaf and Fallujah in 2004, nearly decimated his militia forces. Afterward, he opted for a political approach, capitalizing on the popularity he had reaped for fighting the U.S. occupiers. In government, he controls key ministries such as health and education, allowing him to build his base and his militia by channeling vital services and jobs to his supporters.

Sadr has also appeared to savor his role as political kingmaker and religious leader. He has made public comments seeking to rein in violence by what he considers rogue elements of his Mahdi Army. He is widely believed to model his movement on Lebanon's Hezbollah, which has both an armed wing and a political wing that participates in government.

He leads the second largest army in Iraq, after the U.S. military. His support ranges from southern Iraq, where Shiites dominate, to Sadr City in Baghdad. "If there's going to be a new election, he will be the biggest beneficiary," Nasr said.

If Sadr decided to remain outside and the government weakened or collapsed, it would set back U.S. efforts to bring stability to Iraq and the region, Nasr said. So would any American escalation of tensions with Sadr, he added.

"We are already bogged down with Sadr's army without even waging a war with him," Nasr said.

Dabbagh said the Bush administration needs to do more to engage Sadr and treat him as a politician rather than a militia leader.

"They want to be recognized," Dabbagh said, referring to Sadr and his followers. "They want to show they are also a player in Iraq and they should be taken care of and recognized."

Mahmoud Othman, a Kurdish legislator, warned that Bush administration officials should tread cautiously with Maliki in the wake of Sadr's boycott.

"They should be very careful," Othman said. "Before putting pressure on Maliki, the United States should give him more authority, so he will be more capable. If they pressure him too much now, it may backfire."

Special correspondents K.I. Ibrahim and Naseer Mehdawi in Baghdad and Saad Sarhan in Najaf contributed to this report.