Iraq Panel to Urge Pullout Of Combat Troops by '08

Pulling out combat units would not mean the end of the U.S. military involvement in Iraq, which could continue in a different form for years. The withdrawal would be partially offset by an influx of advisers, trainers and embedded troops. The number of such troops now stands at roughly 5,000 and should be quadrupled to about 20,000, the group's plan says, according to a source. The commission envisions leaving at least several thousand quick-strike U.S. combat soldiers to protect all those other American troops.

Although it was not clear how many U.S. troops would be left in Iraq by 2008, some people knowledgeable about the commission's deliberations have said that it might be possible to reduce the force of 140,000 to half by then. "There'll still be a presence there that will be significant just because of the nature of embedded forces," said one of the sources familiar with the commission's report. "It won't be what we have now, I'll tell you that."

The transition from a combat mission to a support mission would be a radical shift in the nature of the U.S. presence in Iraq, in place more than 3 1/2 years since the invasion that toppled Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from power. The commission sees this shift in emphasis as so crucial that it suggests that U.S. commanders begin by reassigning troops directly out of military units already in Iraq, rather than waiting for new advisers to deploy from the United States.

But some military specialists warned that such a transition could result in more violence or even let the country slide into a full-scale civil war. Many U.S. military commanders believe that the American presence is keeping a lid on Iraq's civil conflict. "I think as we pull down troops, the violence is going to get worse -- and that will make it harder to get the Iraqi army stood up," said Frederick W. Kagan, a defense scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.

Nor would cutting the troop presence increase pressure on Maliki and other Iraqi leaders, a senior U.S. intelligence official contended earlier this week. Rather, he said, it would likely make Iraqi officials feel more endangered and, so, less likely to take risks and make difficult decisions.

Others in Washington cautiously welcomed the emerging report. "I think that the Baker report is . . . going to change the debate in this country," Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) told CNN.

Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.), speaking on MSNBC's "Hardball," said that "I suspect there may be a growing bipartisan support in this country for what Jim Baker, Lee Hamilton, the other members of that commission have put together."

Sen. Carl M. Levin (D-Mich.), the incoming chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, offered a careful assessment: "It's a welcome change in course, although it's not as specific, or it's not as pointed, or it's not as clear as I would like."