Avoiding Costly Moves
Rebuilding Nats Expect to Limit Spending for 2007 Roster

By Barry Svrluga
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, December 4, 2006

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla., Dec. 3 -- Two years ago, the Washington Nationals -- shackled with a minuscule budget issued by their owners, Major League Baseball -- signed Esteban Loaiza, a beleaguered right-hander, to a one-year, $2.9-million contract. The message was clear: We'll give you a place to rehabilitate your career, and you'll try to help us win games.

Last offseason, after Loaiza departed for a richer deal, the club signed Ramon Ortiz to a one-year, $2.5-million contract with much the same intentions.

As baseball's winter meetings open Monday, there will be new Loaizas and Ortizes there for the taking, pitchers needing new teams. But don't expect the Nationals -- coming off last-place finishes in their first two seasons in Washington -- to dole out a penny. The team says it has a plan to build up infrastructure even if it means the 2007 major league roster suffers, and even with money flying everywhere, club officials don't seem inclined to deviate.

"We're not going to make short-term decisions to improve our team by inches," General Manager Jim Bowden said. "We're more interested in improving our team by light years down the road. We will always listen, and kick the tires on any and all transactions that might give us a possibility to improve our long-term plan. But we're not looking for short-term fixes, because that could hurt the long-term fixes we really need to make."

Translation, Part I: Anyone hoping for low-end starters such as Bruce Chen or Jamey Wright to step to the podium this week and speak excitedly about playing in Washington should look elsewhere. The Nationals, in dire need of starting pitching, are far more likely to cobble together a group of a dozen hopefuls from within the organization and say, "Here's your chance," than they are to pay $4 million for an established-but-shaky major league starter.

Translation, Part II: Familiarize yourself with the names John Patterson, Mike O'Connor, Tim Redding, Beltran Perez and Shawn Hill. Oh, and throw in Matt Chico, Joel Hanrahan, Chris Michalak and Colby Lewis -- and those aren't even the long shots. There's the core group that, barring any unexpected signings or a trade, could make up the 2007 rotation.

Combined, those nine players have 160 major league starts and 46 victories. Tom Glavine, the veteran left-hander who last week re-signed with the New York Mets, has 635 starts and 290 wins all by himself.

"We are going to do the best we can to not rush players beyond what their capabilities are," Bowden said. "We're not going to rush players even if we have a dire major league need."

Both Bowden and team president Stan Kasten understand that fans will consider that the Nationals allowed their best player, left fielder Alfonso Soriano, to take the riches offered by the Chicago Cubs -- an eight-year, $136-million deal that is the gold standard of this offseason -- and expect that that money be allocated elsewhere. But club officials say, quietly, that's not likely to happen.

The thinking is three-fold. First, signing the best free agents, those classified as "Type A" such as Oakland Athletics left-hander Barry Zito, costs the new club draft choices. The Nationals instead want to stockpile draft choices because they believe that's the best way to rebuild their admittedly moribund farm system.

Second, allowing their own free agents to walk away -- as they did with outfielder Jose Guillen, who said Sunday he took a physical and is signing a one-year, $5 million contract with Seattle -- brings draft picks in return. The Nationals will receive a choice between the first and second rounds for Guillen, and will have one pick between the first and second round as well as the Cubs' second-rounder as compensation for losing Soriano.

Third, even though spending an extra $10 million or $15 million on player payroll for 2007 -- signing, for instance, a pair of poor to middling pitchers -- might mean more wins, front office members don't believe significant value should be placed on, say, winning 75 games instead of 65 when the ultimate goal, winning a World Series, would be just as far away.

So for the long term, the Nationals hope a flood of young players means a better major league product in years to come. But they know, in the immediate future, it could mean a season even worse than last year's 71-91 campaign. Some club officials have even quietly mentioned the Detroit Tigers, who lost 119 games in 2003 but used a core of the same players to win the American League pennant last season.

"We want to get from here to there," Kasten said. "I don't know what 119 losses feels like, and I hope I never find out. I know it must have been painful. But I'm sure they cannot even remember it now."

New manager Manny Acta, on hand for his first winter meetings, said he understands the reality of what his roster is likely to be. "I knew what I was getting into in the first year," he said. "But I'm going to try to win, regardless of what I have."

A trade market could develop at the meetings. The Nationals currently have three middle infielders -- shortstops Felipe Lopez and Cristian Guzman and second baseman Jose Vidro -- and would love to be able to deal Vidro's contract ($16 million over the 2007 and '08) for prospects. In fact, the only player in the entire system who is untouchable is third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, so if a team comes to Bowden's suite this week and bowls him over with a package of prospects for almost anyone else, he could pounce.

But even such trades are more likely to bring players who will have more impact on the future than they would on 2007. That leaves the likelihood that the winter meetings, for the Nationals, will be spent largely on the sidelines, and the summer could be spent explaining to fans why they should believe better times are ahead.

"Clearly we are concerned," Kasten said. "We are very mindful that people who paid their money are mostly concerned with what they're going to see that night, even the ones who appreciate that there is good stuff happening beneath the surface. That's why we spend so much time on customer experience. . . . But I don't think we're as far away as some people do. And as optimistic as I feel right now, I think everyone's going to feel a great deal more optimistic 12 months from now -- if not sooner."

Nationals Note: Cincinnati GM Wayne Krivsky said the Reds would file a grievance with MLB against the Nationals over the July trade that sent reliever Gary Majewski to the Reds. Krivsky believes the Nationals knew Majewski had shoulder problems before the deal, after which Majewski posted an 8.40 ERA and spent time on the disabled list.

"It's in the hands of our lawyers," Krivsky told the Cincinnati Post.

Bowden has said Washington provided all the medical information the Reds asked for. He did not comment Sunday.