Democratic Wave in Congress Further Erodes Moderation in GOP

Rep. Michael N. Castle (R-Del.), a prominent moderate, said he expects that his party will hold a series of internal debates next year about when to work with the Democrats and when to resist. Throughout the 109th Congress, moderates sided with the Democrats on such issues as stem cell research, drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and overhauling immigration policy. Castle says moderates could build consensus on two issues likely to create fireworks between the parties: devising a new strategy in Iraq and reshaping lobbying.

Another moderate, Rep. Charles W. Dent (Pa.), said there is room for agreement within the GOP on tax and budget issues and on efforts to restore fiscal discipline and restrain the growth of government. "I think voters sent us a message" to get back to those types of issues, he said.

An important factor in the Democrats' victory in the midterm election was that independent and moderate voters abandoned the GOP in droves. Since the 2002 midterms, support for the Republican Party has declined seven percentage points among moderates and nine percentage points among independents, according to exit polls.

That trend was at play in Leach's eastern Iowa district, which includes rolling hills and farmland and high-tech plants and offices in Cedar Rapids. In 2004, Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) won 59 percent of the vote in the district, more than he won in any other Republican-held congressional district. Still, Leach, a Princeton graduate and one-time U.S. Foreign Service officer, defeated his opponent 59 percent to 39 percent.

During the past two years, as the president's approval rating plummeted and Iowa voters grew dissatisfied with Republican rule in Washington, Leach argued that the best way to alter the policies of the GOP and Congress was to elect more moderates to strengthen the political center.

That argument resonated with much of his district, but not in Iowa City, a heavily populated Democratic bastion and home to the University of Iowa. It was there that David Loebsack, a first-time Democratic candidate, carried a huge majority -- enough to unseat Leach, 51 percent to 48 percent.

"My opponent would have suggested the real change in Washington would be to get a check on Republican power," Leach said. "My opponent was clearly perceived as compelling in this election."

Loebsack said: "The party had moved away from him over the course of a number of years. His argument that he could bring them back to the center didn't wash any longer."

While Leach was going down, another prominent Republican moderate, Rep. Christopher Shays (Conn.), managed to hold on. Shays, unlike Leach, had supported Bush's war policies, despite strong antiwar sentiment in Connecticut.

Shays faced the same opponent he did in 2004, town official Diane Farrell, who had campaigned against him hard for two years. Shays knew he was a top target all year long, which gave him -- and Republicans in Washington -- time to raise and spend money to defend the seat. He also slowly altered his stance on the conduct of the war and called for the resignation of Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld.

Leach's vulnerability emerged late in the election. But when the Republican House campaign committee sent out two mailings attacking Loebsack, Leach, who had never run a negative campaign, told the party to stop the mailings.