You've Got ISG Mail

If I you were an Iranian Khomeinist, would you not prefer high-priced oil (guaranteed by global insecurity), nuclear weapons and a satrapy next door in Iraq -- as well as a reliable client in Syria, expanding influence in Lebanon, Gaza, the West Bank and eventually elsewhere -- along with recognition by Muslims worldwide that you are now the leader of the global jihadi movement?

If you were an Iranian moderate who did not favor all that, how would you make the case to those more radical than you?

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From: Reuel Gerecht

To: [Expert ISG Working Group]

Date: August 09, 2006 11:48 AM

I've been away. Jim has awakened me from my slumber: Perhaps, I missed something: Is Jim talking about Frenchmen or is he talking about Khameneh'i, Rafsanjani, and Ahmadinejad? Bribery with Europeans has a long successful track record (as Abu Du'ad could have testified to). Does Jim have any instances that he would like to cite suggesting that Khameneh'i can be bribed? (I can't think of one for Rafsanjani, who is my favorite corrupt clerical powerhouse.) And I might add: I think if we did a lexis-nexis run on the writings of Bernard Lewis on the clerical regime with the statements/writings of any US or European official who has had even tangential contact with the clerics, I suspect that Bernard's musings will turn out to be, to put it politely, more accurate. Bernard, unlike any US official that I'm aware of, actually does see and chat with globe-trotting clerics (members of the Tabataba'i family, I think, are his favorites). I'll stop now. Back to Jim. Best, Reuel

P.S. Can I pretty please be present when Nick Burns is sitting across the table from some Iranian official and says "We hereby promise never, ever to talk about democracy in Iran again. And we will say publicly that you are legitimate. Promise, cross my heart. And we will not try to destabilize you any more, promise. Listen, we don't have any CIA programs to destabilize you now -- I know you don't believe me, but you should, honest, I promise -- and we hereby promise never, ever to have them in the future. Honest. Cross my heart."

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From: James Dobbins

To: [Expert ISG Working Group]

Date: August 09, 2006 12:01 PM

There, there, Reuel, back to sleep, its all just a bad dream. Jim