Bush Rejects Most Dramatic Iraq Options

Iraqis are seen through a hole in a wall of a house that was damaged during an Iraqi and U.S. Army joint forces raid and air strike in Baghdad's Shiite slum of Sadr City, Iraq, Saturday, Dec.16, 2006. The raid, in which six suspects were detained, was aimed at capturing the leader of an illegally armed group of more than 100 people believed responsible for kidnappings, killings, illegal checkpoints, rocket attacks and bombings against security forces and civilians in northeastern Baghdad, the military said. (AP Photo/Karim Kadim) (Karim Kadim - AP)

WASHINGTON -- President Bush has taken the most dramatic options off the table as he tries to change direction in Iraq, leaving him with a list of modest military and diplomatic moves to announce in the new year.

Bush probably will ignore the boldest suggestions from a bipartisan commission that studied U.S. options in Iraq, adopting some of the group's lesser prescriptions alongside those drafted by his civilian and military advisers.

The White House National Security Council has compiled recommendations from several agencies as the administration's internal reassessment of Iraq policy nears an end. Bush plans to address the nation in early January, two months after heavy Republican losses in congressional elections.

A look at some of the president's options:

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On the military front, there are various ways to "go big," by adding 10,000 to 20,000 troops to the approximately 135,000 U.S. forces in Iraq. Bush has gotten competing advice about how many troops to add, whether to define their mission as temporary or long term and whether to add troops at all.

Some military officers doubt that the results from any increase would be worth the damage to the Army's readiness. Others advocate adding forces and launching an offensive against Shiite militia leader Muqtada al-Sadr while increasing industrial and economic aid to civilians.

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., has said the U.S. should send five to 10 more brigades of combat soldiers, translating to 15,000 to 30,000 additional troops. The current U.S. force includes about 15 combat brigades made up of 50,000 to 60,000 soldiers. Bush has been told that adding up to 20,000 troops would be fairly easy to arrange and a short-term surge of up to 50,000 could be done with difficulty.

The additional troops would be assigned primarily in Baghdad, where sectarian killing has surged out of control in the past 10 months. Some could go to Anbar province, where U.S. forces have been unable to dislodge the Sunni-led anti-government insurgency.

Another element of the "go big" idea is increasing the total size of the military. The chiefs of the Army and Marine Corps want to expand the size of their services, although departing Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld opposed it. He cited an estimated cost of $1.2 billion a year for each 10,000 extra troops. The Army also wants the ability to mobilize Guard and Reserve troops more frequently than is now allowed; some in Congress are likely to resist such a change.

Bush probably will reject the Iraq Study Group's recommendation to pull back most combat forces by early 2008. Proposals before him include integrating or embedding more U.S. advisers in Iraqi Army units to provide guidance on tactics and leadership. The long-term goal would be a shift away from a primarily combat role, which some advisers say consigns U.S. forces to a defensive posture as they await the next attack by insurgents.

No matter how it is calibrated, this "go long" shift would reinforce the administration's recognition that U.S. troops will be in Iraq for years to come. Bush has rejected any suggestion for a quick withdrawal of U.S. forces, as some lawmakers recommend, and probably will not set a firm exit timetable. He is likely to endorse the basic idea recommended by the commission and others to condition at least some U.S. military and economic engagement to the performance of Iraq's government. Economic steps could include a significant jobs program. Unemployment in Iraq is estimated at between 20 percent and 60 percent.