Giuliani's Primary Hurdle

He's a crime fighter and a tax and welfare cutter. He campaigned for George W. Bush in 2000 and staked out unyielding positions on Iraq -- he said recently that withdrawing soon from Iraq "would be a terrible mistake." He also disputed the recent findings of the Iraq Study Group, the bipartisan commission of elder statesmen, that concluded that untangling the Israeli-Palestinian knot is central to achieving a broader Middle East peace.

Giuliani, who was born in Brooklyn and raised on Long Island, is an intensely disciplined candidate. In his mayoral campaigns, he appealed to white Democrats, Catholics and Jews, while drawing substantial votes from Latinos. (He was far less attractive to African Americans, whose young men bore the brunt of his controversial anti-crime tactics and whose leaders rarely stepped inside the mayor's inner circle.)

Whether he can extend that appeal in a national campaign will be the biggest test that Giuliani faces.

And tactically, the shape of Giuliani's campaign depends on forces outside his control. If, for example, New Jersey successfully pushes its primary day ahead of South Carolina on the calendar, and if he wins in New Hampshire, Giuliani could gain momentum.

"If they put the Northern states early, he becomes formidable because he's the unquestioned hero in the first shot of the war on terror," said Hank Sheinkopf, a longtime Democratic consultant. "If I'm a Republican consultant, I wait until the Southern primaries and blow him up on social issues: the he divorce, the annulment, posing in drag at the party at City Hall."

Republican operatives caution that Giuliani is far behind in the "talent primary" -- the back-stage battle for sought-after campaign staffers. McCain and Gov. Mitt Romney (R-Mass.) have so far dominated this inside but important game.

Giuliani has pressed his case in South Carolina, hoping to lay claim to that party's evangelical heart. Wynn, the former state chairman, and Warren Tompkins, the well-respected South Carolina consultant, flew up to have lunch with the former mayor in New York in the spring. Wynn left a Giuliani man; Tompkins signed on with Romney.

Giuliani made two visits to Iowa in 2006 -- spending Election Day stumping with Jim Nussle, the party's nominee for governor. But his inroads are few among social conservatives. Steve Scheffler, the head of the Iowa Christian Alliance, said Giuliani had yet to reach out to him. Scheffler takes a skeptic's view of the former mayor, noting that between 70 and 75 percent of Republican caucus voters in 2008 will be "pro-life and pro-marriage."

Some Republicans in Washington speculate that Giuliani is but dipping his toe in presidential waters. Others privately advise him to return to his lucrative consulting practice.

Others who know him say to keep watching.

"He's been running seriously for a year and a half," said Fred Siegel, a historian at Cooper Union who briefly advised Giuliani years ago and who later wrote "The Prince of the City: Giuliani, New York and the Genius of American Life."

"He's a competent wonk with a very hard edge, and that could make him formidable if the primaries break right."

Cillizza reported from Washington.