By Peter Finn
Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, December 22, 2006; A21
MOSCOW, Dec. 21 -- The unexpected death of Saparmurad Niyazov, the repressive ruler of Turkmenistan, could unleash a power struggle in the energy-rich Central Asian republic, analysts here said, and disrupt natural gas supplies to the Russian energy behemoth Gazprom and its increasingly nervous customers in Western Europe.
Early signs of internal discord were evident in an official announcement that the speaker of the parliament's lower house, who under constitutional rules should have become acting president, had been placed under criminal investigation.
With winter closing in, the global energy industry was monitoring the surprise news from Turkmenistan closely. Turkmen gas is already an important element in state-controlled Gazprom's ability to meet customer demand at home and abroad and could become vital as demand rises over the next decade.
The United States has lobbied Turkmenistan, so far unsuccessfully, to build a pipeline across the Caspian Sea that would bypass Russian territory to deliver gas to the outside world. European countries have quietly supported the idea, which would reduce their dependence on Russia for supplies of natural gas.
The strategic competition known as the Great Game that bedeviled Central Asia more than a century ago may get a rerun as Western-oriented and exiled opposition leaders return to Turkmenistan and jostle with Russian surrogates for power in the vacuum left by Niyazov's death.
Complicating the mix are tribal politics and the loyalties of the powerful security services.
The Niyazov government was dominated by the Akhal Teke tribe, but the desert country's major gas fields lie in areas dominated by other tribes. Tensions over distribution of power and benefits from the sales never surfaced because Niyazov maintained an internal security cocoon that smothered any dissent.
Political institutions and discourse were enfeebled by Niyazov's dictatorial rule in the former Soviet republic, a largely Muslim country of 5 million people that borders Iran, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Khazakhstan. . Niyazov's paranoid rule precluded serious discussion of any future transfer of power or the designation of a broadly acceptable successor.
Suddenly, dramatic political transformation seems possible.
Opposition leader Khudaiberdy Orazov, a former deputy prime minister under Niyazov who is now in exile in Sweden, said in a phone interview that he and other politicians living abroad hope to return as quickly as possible and take part in elections, which under the constitution should be held within two months. He warned of unrest unless Turkmenistan takes a new course.
"The situation in the country is catastrophic, and if anyone tries to continue Niyazov's policies, there will be a cataclysm," he said. "People have been suffering for too long."
"America must guarantee democracy," Orazov added, a demand likely to rankle Moscow, which is deeply suspicious of the U.S. seeding of opposition groups in former Soviet republics along its southern flank.
Kremlin officials believe the United States played a pivotal role in popular revolts that replaced Russian-oriented governments in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. Only Georgia continues a defiantly pro-Western policy.
In a statement Thursday, President Bush said: "We convey our condolences to the family of President Niyazov and to the people of Turkmenistan. We look forward to continuing to expand our relations with Turkmenistan, to a bright future for that country and to a government that provides justice and opportunity for its people."
After the death was announced, flags were lowered to half-staff on government buildings in the capital, Ashkhabad. New Year's decorations on the streets were removed and liquor stores ordered to close, the Associated Press reported. The military was put on heightened alert, but there were no signs of increased military or police presence in the city.
In official announcements, the government stressed continuity. State news media said that Deputy Prime Minister Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, reportedly a relative of the late president, would become acting president. He had been chosen earlier as the organizer of Niyazov's funeral, which will take place Sunday.
On Tuesday, Turkmenistan's highest representative body is to meet to decide on the succession and set a date for elections, the Reuters news service reported
"A familiar Soviet model of transferring power will be attempted," said Sergei Panarin, a professor at the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow. "Already we saw this statement about the head of funeral commission. That's a sign. A very Soviet sign. But the question is open whether that person can hold on to power."
Berdymukhammedov was chosen over the constitutionally designated successor, Ovezgeldy Atayev, speaker of the lower house. Official news media gave no details about the alleged criminal investigation that the country's prosecutor had opened against him.
Berdymukhammedov pledged to "continue to go the political course of the great leader", in remarks soon after being named acting president.
He may well prove to be a temporary figure as other forces, particularly the security services, make their choice, analysts said. Orazov said he feared that the internal security service, the domestic successor of the KGB, would probably attempt to play the decisive role in choosing a successor.
What role, if any, Niyazov's son, Murat, might play is also unclear. He has earned a reputation as a traveling playboy, not a political player, but he could prove to be a useful figurehead for supporters of continuity within the country.
Any disruption in gas production because of internal turmoil could again affect natural gas supplies to Western Europe, according to an alert issued Thursday by Deutsche UFG, a subsidiary of Deutsche Bank.
Last January, Gazprom temporarily prevented supplies reaching Europe after a dispute with Ukraine over pricing. The standoff was eventually resolved through a murky deal that routed cheap Turkmen natural gas to Ukraine and resupplied the Ukrainian pipeline carrying Russian natural gas to the West.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Thursday, "We hope for a legal transfer of power and that continuity will be preserved in our relations."