Ethiopia Steps Up Attacks on Somalia

"Hasn't anyone heard of Iraq?" said John Prendergast, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group in Washington. "A military strategy of 'countering terrorism' never works and will likely blow up in their faces."

Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has maintained, however, that this is a war of self-defense and that dialogue has only bought the Islamic movement time to expand its control. He has repeatedly accused the Islamic movement of supporting secessionist Somali groups inside Ethiopia, and, along with the United States, has accused the movement of harboring terrorists, an allegation it has denied.

Though the United States has remained on the sidelines as the situation has deteriorated, Meles has said he has support for a defensive war from the United States, which fears that Somalia, a country without a central government since 1991, could become a new base for terrorist groups.

Opposition groups inside Ethiopia say that Meles, an increasingly authoritarian leader, has shrewdly played up the terrorism charges to win U.S. support. Based in part on intelligence out of Ethiopia, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Jendayi E. Frazer has asserted that the Islamic movement is now under the control of an al-Qaeda cell, a claim that regional analysts believe is exaggerated.

Although some analysts believe al-Qaeda may exert influence over some military and political leaders within the Islamic movement, they caution that the leadership is very large and complex and that claims that any one person or group is in control is a misunderstanding of the movement.

Somalia has historically been of strategic importance to the United States because of its proximity to the Middle East and Red Sea shipping lanes. But U.S. policy there has been sharply criticized over the years.

A U.S.-led attempt to stabilize the country led to the deaths of 18 American troops in October 1993 in an incident depicted in a popular book and film, "Black Hawk Down." And more recently, the United States financed warlords in Somalia who described themselves as an "anti-terrorism coalition" but who mostly terrorized local Somalis, who came to despise them.

The Islamic Courts, initially a grouping of local clerics, came to power in that context, establishing order based on Islamic law village by village, and winning the support of businessmen and others who found the transitional government ineffective and the warlords unacceptable. Analysts say it is a measure of beleaguered Somalis' desire for order, rather than a tendency toward religious extremism, that they embraced the movement.

The movement is well financed, receiving money from the Somali diaspora and countries such as Eritrea, Yemen and others, according to a recent U.N. report.

Though the movement includes moderate leaders, it is backed by a militant core of young fighters called shebab, who have been indoctrinated with the ideology of holy war and whose leaders, analysts say, seem to have become more influential in recent months.

Analysts said the current crisis stems from another failure of U.S. policy in an increasingly vulnerable region. "All this could have been averted," Prendergast said. "If the U.S. joined a serious diplomatic effort aimed at finding a compromise between Ethiopia and the Courts, negotiations could have had a much better chance. Once the serious punching has started, it's going to be increasingly difficult to stop this brawl."