Violent Crime Is Up

Cue the theorizing.

DURING THE 1990s and the early part of this decade, crime fell and stayed down -- and politicians of all stripes claimed credit. Conservatives attributed the drop to tough sentencing policies that swelled the national prison population. The Clinton administration cited its heavy investment in local law enforcement and community-oriented policing. Governors and mayors around the country claimed vindication for their particular policies though local declines were, in almost all cases, no greater than those in adjacent jurisdictions that pursued different policies. The crime drop, whose causes remain mysterious, made everybody look good. Now, according to new data from the FBI, crime is inching back up -- and stands to make policymakers look bad. Yet once again, the causes are muddy.

Though the uptick is not uniform -- some crime is still falling -- it seems substantial, alarming even. After rising in 2005, violent crime jumped again in the FBI's figures for the first half of 2006. Murder was up 1.4 percent, aggravated assault 1.2 percent. Robbery, which criminologists consider an important indicator of crime trends, was up nearly 10 percent -- and its rise was nationwide, with no region seeing less than a 5.8 percent increase. Overall, violent crime was up 3.7 percent, after a 2.3 percent increase last year.

Just as the waning of the crack epidemic, economic good times and general demographic trends contributed to the drop in crime, so a number of factors are probably at work now: a bulge in age segments of the population more prone to crime, the rise of methamphetamine use, a pinched fiscal climate for state and local governments that provide social services for people likely to turn to crime.

In addition, every year, large numbers of people who have served long sentences are released; programs for prisoners and ex-offenders alike have received insufficient attention. The Bush administration severely cut the Clinton administration's community-oriented policing program and has generally reduced the federal commitment to local law enforcement -- understandably shifting resources toward terrorism and homeland security in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

The Justice Department is studying the numbers and trying to assess the cause of the rise. That's reasonable. Crime is a complex social effect, and it's important to understand in order to intervene effectively. But given the lag between policy changes and impact, it is also important not to dawdle. Paralysis will only lead to an environment in which politicians jockey to avoid blame.