Analysis: Somalia May Fall Back to Chaos

NAIROBI, Kenya -- Militiamen haunt Somalia's streets again, warlords have moved back into their mansions and the internationally backed government doesn't have the police or troops to maintain the peace.

The call has gone out for an African cavalry to ride into town and save the day. But will it arrive in time? Diplomats from around the world are scrambling.

After Somali government forces backed by Ethiopian troops drove a rival Islamic movement out of the Somali capital and most of its other strongholds in the south, Jendayi Frazer, America's top diplomat for Africa, set out for the region to see what could be done to shore up the government.

When she boarded a U.S. Air Force plane that would take her to four countries in three days, she knew two simple truths about Somalia.

First, the people badly need help. Almost one in four Somalis require outside assistance to survive and the Islamic militants who imposed security, while demanding piety, are gone. The warlords are ascendant and aid workers are afraid to go back in.

Second, the United States can do little by itself. A botched intervention in the early 1990s left 18 U.S. servicemen dead and the legacy of the "Black Hawk Down" battle still weighs heavily on both countries. American boots on the ground is not an option.

"An African peacekeeping force is a good start to bring about stability," said Frazer, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for Africa. She took that message to the presidents of Somalia, Uganda, Djibouti and Yemen, as well as Ethiopia's prime minister and the African Union's deputy chairman.

A meeting of U.S., European Union, African and Arab diplomats ended in Kenya on Friday with a call for a peacekeeping force envisioned at 8,000 soldiers. Uganda has promised about 1,500, but only time will tell if they meet Frazer's request to deploy before the end of January.

Kenya's foreign minister, Raphael Tuju, set off Monday to visit five Africa countries to see who else might be willing to contribute troops. He declined to name them, but the only nations possibly willing and able are South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, Benin and perhaps Senegal.

"It won't be easy," Tuju said. "But I am optimistic that there is enough willpower among African heads of state that want to solve this problem after so many years."

Willpower, though, may not be enough. All of those countries already provide peacekeepers to operations around the world, and South Africa and Nigeria are especially spread thin at the moment. And no country will send peacekeepers into Somalia if there is fighting.

"If there is no improvement in security, it will make it difficult," said Francois Lonseny Fall, the top U.N. envoy to Somalia.