Amid Misjudgments and Upbeat Forecasts, a Belief That the War Is Crucial

Time and again over the 46 months of the Iraq war, President Bush has resorted to the ultimate weapon of his rhetorical armory -- the prime-time or highly publicized address -- to rally public opinion.

Taken together, the speeches constitute a catalogue of judgments and misjudgments of the situation on the ground and a set of optimistic forecasts, many of which have been betrayed by events.

What is consistent has been Bush's belief that the battle for Iraq is crucial for the overall war against terrorism and the determination to avoid defeat. As he argued last night, this is "more than a military conflict," that "it is the decisive ideological struggle of our time."

That was also what Bush said on March 19, 2003, in announcing his decision to invade Iraq. "The people of the United States and our friends and allies will not live at the mercy of an outlaw regime that threatens the peace with weapons of mass murder" -- a reference to the weapons of mass destruction that ultimately turned up nowhere.

Bush was back on the air two months later, when he celebrated the fall of Baghdad with a television production that later proved embarrassing. Standing on the deck of the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, under a banner proclaiming "Mission Accomplished," he declared that "major combat operations in Iraq have ended."

In fact, nearly 3,000 American deaths were still to come.

At the end of 2003, there was another celebration, this one more restrained. On Dec. 14, Bush spoke from the Cabinet room about the capture of ousted Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. While warning that "we still face terrorists," he said that "a hopeful day has arrived," and that "all Iraqis can now come together and reject violence and build a New Iraq."

Five months later, on May 24, 2004, the tone was much different when Bush addressed the nation from the Army War College in Carlisle, Pa. Violence was increasing, and the United States had been embarrassed by detainee abuse at the Abu Ghraib prison.

"We've learned from these failures," Bush said, "and we've taken steps to correct them." Among other things, he said: "We are accelerating our program to help train Iraqis to defend their own country."

The 2004 election campaign produced a hiatus in major Iraq speeches, and by June 2005, when they resumed, Bush was on the defensive. He went to Fort Bragg, N.C., and, speaking from a stage filled with soldiers, told a TV audience that the proper response to increasing violence "is not retreat."

Ruling out a deadline for withdrawal or an increase in U.S. troops, Bush cited signs of progress in the fledgling Iraqi government and its security forces. "Our strategy can be summed up this way," he said. "As the Iraqis stand up, we will stand down."

By December 2005, declining public support for the war alarmed the White House, and Bush made four speeches in rapid order trying to rally support. He also issued a new "National Strategy for Victory in Iraq."

In a Philadelphia stop on Dec. 12, 2005, Bush once again assured Americans: "We're making steady progress." He said the United States was helping "build the prosperity that will give all Iraqis a stake in a free and peaceful Iraq," adding: "On the security side, coalition and Iraqi forces are on the offense against the enemy."

In that speech, Bush acknowledged that "some fear the possibility that Iraq could break apart and fall into a civil war," but, he said, "I don't believe those fears are justified."

In a nationally televised address on Dec. 18, 2005, Bush ruled out troop reductions and insisted that the violence "does not mean we are losing. . . . Our forces in Iraq are on the road to victory."

In September, with members of the newly installed Iraqi government squabbling and the U.S. death toll fast approaching 3,000, Bush tried one more time, with an Oval Office address after a day of commemorations of the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks. Bush deployed his bottom-line argument. "The worst mistake we could make," he said, "would be to think that if we pulled out, the terrorists would leave us alone. They will not leave us alone. They will follow us. The safety of America depends on the outcome of the battle in the streets of Baghdad."

Political researcher Zachary A. Goldfarb contributed to this report.