Sudan's Peace Deal, Seen as a Bush Success, Is Endangered

But the rebel leader John Garang was killed in a helicopter crash shortly after he became first vice president of Sudan in July 2005. His successor, Salva Kiir Mayardit, lashed out at the Khartoum government this month during a second-anniversary celebration of the accord, accusing it of continuing to bankroll militias in the south, refusing to share oil wealth and stalling on border agreements.

As a visibly angry President Omar Hassan al-Bashir sat on the dais, Kiir pleaded to "give peace a chance." Asking whether the leaders had worked toward making the unity of the government attractive, Kiir declared: "The answer is regrettably no! Problems, serious problems still remain to be resolved."

Bashir then fired back with his own accusations, saying that delays and problems are the fault of the rebels, not the government. The unusually public spat focused renewed attention on the sputtering accord.

Barnaba Benjamin, minister for regional development in the government of south Sudan, told a House Foreign Affairs panel last week that "the country can break up unless the CPA is implemented in spirit and in letter."

Winter said that an area known as Abyei, between the northern and southern parts of Sudan, is a particular source of tension. Under the peace agreement, Abyei, which has a huge oil field, can vote in 2011 on whether to be part of the north or the south. But Bashir has rejected the findings of a boundary commission and has refused to allow the creation of a local government, convincing the local population that war will break out again in the territory. Winter faulted the administration for failing to publicly pressure Khartoum on this critical issue.

Though Garang was long an advocate of Sudanese unity, his death and the Darfur disaster have made it increasingly likely that the south Sudanese will vote overwhelmingly for independence, according to focus group surveys conducted by the National Democratic Institute.

Winter said Khartoum appears ready to break the peace deal before the election takes place, so the administration needs to help the south prepare for independence.

The administration official acknowledged that south Sudan is moving toward independence. "We have to plan for that," he said. "The idea behind the CPA was that there would be a transformation of Sudan, that it would become a responsible player in the international community. Many south Sudanese would say they have not seen that."