Blunders Beset France's Socialist Party
Nominee Is Falling In Opinion Polls As Her Remarks Are Raising Doubts

By John Ward Anderson
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, February 1, 2007

PARIS, Jan. 31 -- It was an unseemly and unusual lovers' spat -- in public, on camera, over tax policy.

Just two months after Segolene Royal won the Socialist Party nomination for president of France, the head of the party -- also her longtime companion and the father of her four children -- said that if elected, the Socialists would raise taxes.

"That's not how I see things," Royal fired back to reporters, seeming irked that talk of such an unpopular move was coming just as her campaign was struggling to gain altitude. "I'm not in favor of increasing taxes."

The disagreement was another in a string of blunders in Royal's bid to become France's first female president. But it wasn't over. A week later, when a television host asked Royal campaign spokesman Arnaud Montebourg what his candidate's weaknesses were, he replied: "Segolene Royal has only one flaw -- her companion."

That moment of candor -- or lame attempt at humor, he claimed -- earned Montebourg a one-month suspension from Royal's campaign.

These events -- and other gaffes, faux pas and smears that have beset Royal's once squeaky-clean and soaring presidential bid -- have shaken confidence in the glamorous, self-styled outsider who is seeking to ride a wave of discontent with French politics all the way to the Elysee Palace in elections this spring.

"Is Segolene Royal up to the job?" the left-leaning Liberation newspaper asked last week. "The question is on everyone's mind -- and not only on the right."

Just a few weeks ago, opinion polls gave Royal a two-point edge over her main rival, Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy of the ruling Union for a Popular Movement party. But in a survey this week by the Ipsos polling group, Sarkozy shot to an eight-point lead, with 54 percent to Royal's 46 percent, if the two were to face off in the second round of France's two-phase election process. The runoff is scheduled for May 6.

"Something bad happened to Royal in the last two weeks, if you look at the polls -- she lost a lot," said Gérard Grunberg of the Institute of Political Studies of Paris. "It's not just her gaffes. Maybe more important is the relation with her party" and her partner, party leader Francois Hollande, he said. "Hollande weakened her. It may have been consciously or unconsciously, but it was bad for her."

Royal is not the only one taking hits. Sarkozy is struggling to soften the tough-guy image he has cultivated as France's top cop, which polls show has been worrying to many voters. And on Tuesday, it was revealed that police had used DNA tests to catch three people who allegedly stole his son's scooter. Opponents asked whether someone else's scooter would have gotten such attention from the police.

Earlier, his campaign was buffeted by charges that the Interior Ministry had launched an investigation into a member of Royal's campaign team.

Sarkozy aides denied that he was involved in either matter, but opponents charged that despite his attempted makeover, the candidate was reverting to type. "This is a double standard," centrist presidential candidate Francois Bayrou told RTL radio, referring to the scooter incident. "The justice system isn't exactly the same for the poor and the powerful."

Still, as polls show, Royal's campaign is taking the worse pummeling.

The relationship between Royal and Hollande, who have been partners for 25 years, has come under extraordinary scrutiny by the French press amid rumors -- fueled by unsubstantiated Internet chatter -- that they are not really living together anymore, that both have had affairs and that they had avoided paying special levies known here as wealth taxes -- a particularly devastating charge for Socialists.

"Every day there is fresh news about our relationship," Royal said on Europe 1 radio. "What is important is that these rumors stop, and that we are left alone a little."

Not all the problems are of Royal's making, but as the party's presidential nominee, they harm her campaign and leadership, analysts said. Such was the case last week when the party expelled a regional president and Royal supporter, Georges Freche, for complaining that the French national soccer team had too many black players.

The various incidents give "a messy impression of her campaign," said Jerome Fourquet, deputy director of the IFOP polling agency. "On top of that, key political leaders in her party haven't backed her. That's a real problem."

In one sign of internal conflict, a senior member of the Socialist Party telephoned a reporter from Le Monde newspaper during a closed-door meeting and left the line open while party leaders fretted over Royal's strategy of refusing to articulate any policy proposals. Royal's campaign instead has focused on what she calls "participatory democracy," in which she has gone around the country listening to voters. She plans to outline her policy platforms on Feb. 11.

The proposals will finally give critics something clear to shoot at, said political analyst Alain Duhamel. Then "we'll see who the true Segolene is. Is she going to remain in what I call 'opinion democracy,' following what people want to hear? Or is she going to become a leader?"

Many of Royal's wounds reflect her inexperience, analysts say. She had her first taste of being at the center of an international uproar last week when she suggested sympathy for Quebec independence.

"Experience teaches that it is highly inappropriate for a foreign leader to interfere in the democratic affairs of another country," snapped Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper. The Globe and Mail of Toronto termed her comments "foolish mutterings."

A few days later, French comedian and well-known prankster Gerald Dahan snared Royal by taping a telephone call with her in which he pretended to be Quebec Premier Jean Charest. In a Quebecois accent, Dahan complained that Royal's comments on Quebec would be like him supporting independence for Corsica, the French Mediterranean island that has a strong streak of independence.

Royal laughed. "The French would not be against this, by the way," she said in the recording, played on RTL radio. "Don't repeat that. It will create another incident in France. It's a secret."

Royal was right. It did create another incident.

"For me, Corsica isn't a joke," said Sarkozy. "It is the Republic."

While visiting China, Royal seemed to make a favorable comparison between that country's judicial system and France's. She said Iran should not be allowed to have a civilian nuclear energy program, even though it is allowed to as a signatory of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Royal also drew criticism in December on her maiden overseas voyage as a nominee when she met with a Hezbollah lawmaker in Lebanon and did not react when he accused Israel of "Nazism" and the United States of "insanity" for invading Afghanistan and Iraq.

"Thank you for being so frank," Royal told him. "I agree with a lot of the things you have said, notably your analysis of the U.S."

After getting shellacked for her comments, Royal said she had not correctly heard the lawmaker's remarks, which she called "unacceptable, abominable and hateful."

Researcher Corinne Gavard contributed to this report.