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U.S. Not Planning for War With Iran, Gates Says
Gates added, "And so our effort is aimed at uprooting the networks that are providing these EFPs. We're also trying to uproot the networks that provide the IEDs as well that are being provided or being used by al-Qaeda and others." He noted that improvised explosive devices "account for about 70 percent of our casualties."
The U.S. military headquarters in Iraq is putting together "some specifics about the Iranian supply of these weapons," Gates said. But he, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and National Security Adviser Stephen J. Hadley have delayed a briefing on the matter because they want to make sure it is "absolutely accurate and is dominated by facts -- serial numbers, technology and so on," Gates said.
He said it remains unclear who in Iran is behind the supply of such weapons, whether it be the Iranian government, militants in the Revolutionary Guards or "rogue elements."
While IED attacks involving explosively formed projectiles probably account for "a relatively small percentage of the overall number of attacks," Gates said, "they are far more lethal."
Pace said the military is "working day and night to disassemble these networks" responsible for the explosives, "and we do that without regard to nationality, but just with regard to who our enemies are." He said it was "instructive that at least twice in the last month that, in going after the networks, we have picked up Iranians."
On Jan. 11, U.S. troops launched two raids on Iranian targets in Iraq, detaining at least five Iranians in the northern city of Irbil and seizing documents and computer data. In December, U.S. forces seized two senior Iranians -- Brig. Gen. Mohsen Chirazi and Col. Abu Amad Davari -- in a first round of raids. Chirazi is the No. 3 official in the al-Quds Brigade of the Revolutionary Guard Corps and the highest ranking Iranian ever held by the United States.
Chirazi and Davari were detained in the Baghdad compound of a leading Iraqi Shiite Muslim politician, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, and the Iraqi government subsequently demanded their release and expelled them to Iran. U.S. defense officials said at the time that among the sensitive intelligence information in the Iranians' possession were detailed weapons lists, documents pertaining to shipments of weapons into Iraq, organizational charts, telephone records and maps. Officials said the material included information about importing explosively formed projectiles into Iraq, The Washington Post reported in December.
The shaped charges "can take out an Abrams tank," Gates said today.
Pace said the military in Iraq is also looking into the downing of four U.S. helicopters -- three military and one private -- in the past couple of weeks, including one that went down today northwest of Baghdad. Two U.S. soldiers were killed in the latest incident.
"Clearly, there's been more effective ground fire . . . against our helicopters in the last couple of weeks," Pace said. He said it was not known "whether or not this is just statistically what's going to happen over time when you're flying at that level and people are shooting at you, or if there's some kind of new tactics and techniques that we need to adjust to."
Asked to respond to a comment yesterday by the top U.S. commander in Iraq that the first Iraqi units designated for the new Baghdad security plan are now at 55 percent to 65 percent strength, Gates said it was not yet clear whether that meant the Iraqi government was not meeting its commitments.
"I guess my answer is 55 percent probably isn't good enough, but I'm not sure what the end strength of that unit is going to be when the time comes for it to go into combat," Gates said. He said Iraqi troops are paid in cash and often go home to deliver their pay to their families, "and so there is an absentee level that doesn't represent desertion."
Pace said there was "good news and bad news" in the Iraqi deployment. "The good news is, is that, contrary to what has happened in the past, the units that were designated to arrive in Baghdad have begun to arrive" on schedule. However, he said, "the initial units got there with about 60 percent, and therefore they do need to continue to flesh out those units."
Gates also sought to explain a Congressional Budget Office study, disclosed yesterday in a letter to the chairman of the House Budget Committee. It said that when support troops are added to the 21,500 soldiers and Marines being sent to Iraq as part of Bush's surge plan, the total number of extra personnel could range from about 35,000 to 48,000, with costs ranging from $9 billion to $13 billion for a four-month deployment to $20 billion to $27 billion for a 12-month deployment.
Gates said the CBO study "dramatically overstates both the cost and the personnel." In part, he said, this is because the Pentagon's cost estimate goes through September of this year, or the end of fiscal 2007, while "the CBO number goes out to the end of FY '09."
In addition, the CBO's estimate for support personnel "is dramatically higher" than the military's, he said. He estimated that it would end up being "about 10 percent to 15 percent of the number that CBO cited."
