All Bets Are On

These are proposition bets, or "prop bets," and while they're usually for more informal parties ("I got $5 on the Colts scoring on this drive. Who wants it?"), you can also do it formally. However, we have to say that anybody who takes a heads/tails coin toss bet, and is willing to pay the bookie a 10 percent fee if you lose on that, well, just have some Cheetos and calm down.

Myth 3: It matters if you win your bet.

Fact: No, it doesn't (unless you're a "dime" player, betting $1,000 per game, and then it really, really matters). What matters for guydom is having a theory of the bet.

This is key. As long as you have a defensible theory, you're there. Note that a theory is not "I got a cousin in Chicago, so I'm cheering for the Bears." A theory is not "I like Peyton Manning's commercial, where he says, 'Rub some dirt on it!' "

Guys do not "cheer." Guys do not do "commercials."

Guys "take the Colts at minus 7" because of, say, the "Quarterback Mismatch Theory."

This was advanced last week by handicapper Matt Fargo on a sports betting Web site called Covers.com. Fargo's hypothesis looked at Super Bowls since 1980 in which one quarterback was clearly superior. (That is the case this year, with Manning all over Grossman.) Fargo reckoned there were seven such quarterback mismatches over the past 27 years, and the better quarterback had won six of seven.

Theory: Take the better QB, bet the Colts.

Or take the "History Don't Lie" Theory.

Bell, the handicapper, reports that no team with a scoring defense ranked lower than eighth in the NFL has ever won the Super Bowl. Chicago's defense is ranked No. 3. Indianapolis was 23rd.

Theory: Take 40 years of history, bet the Bears.

See? Any theory works.

Myth 4: Since the handicappers have the Colts as seven-point favorites, it means they're predicting Indianapolis will win by a touchdown.

Fact: Heavens! See Myths 1 and 3! Bookies do not "bet." Bookies do not "care" who "wins" or "loses." This is a business. Bookies don't care about anything but "profit."

The point spread exists to evenly divide the betting public. That's it. It's how bookies make money. See, when you lose a sports bet to any casino, bookie or offshore gambling Web site, you must pay an extra percentage, usually 10 percent. This is called "juice" or "the vig." So if you make a $100 bet and you lose, you pay $110. If you win, you get just $100.

So, if the guys running a sports book evenly divide the amount bet on either side, which they try very hard to do, they are guaranteed a 10 percent profit. If they don't come close to that, and they lose too often, they fall down and go boom.

So, remember: It doesn't matter who wins. It matters by how much they win.

Lastly: If you win your bet, don't get cocky. You are never, ever going to beat the bookies on a regular basis, no matter what any tout tells you.

Konik, the author and betting guru, points out that, over the long haul, you have to win 52.4 percent of your bets just to break even, to account for the extra money you pay when you lose.

And the point spread is so tough to beat consistently that "absolute genius is consistently hitting 59, 60 percent," says Damon Holowchak, a handicapper for Betus.com. Indeed, author and veteran handicapper Dan Gordon wrote "Beat the Sports Book: An Insider's Guide to Betting the NFL" after he hit on 60 percent of his picks one year, 59 percent the next. He had winning seasons seven out of nine years. The book explaining his system is 317 pages.

So, let's recap.

Break even: 52.4 percent. Genius: 59 percent.

You're not going to beat a system that narrow, not over and over again. So don't try. It's for suckers.

Real guys know that.