Experts Weigh Giving Up on Killing Polio

A child awaiting to be treated for polio cries in the town of Birao, the small sun-blasted capital of Vakaga, a region held for a month by rebels until late 2006, Central African Republic, Sunday, Feb. 11, 2007. Central African Republic has struggled for more than a year to contain a homegrown low-intensity rebellion in the northwest. Now, a new insurgency in the northeast near Sudan's Darfur region has compounded this fragile nation's troubles and displaced tens of thousands of people. (AP Photo/Schalk van Zuydam) (Schalk Van Zuydam - AP)

LONDON -- Nearly 20 years ago, the World Health Organization and its partners launched an ambitious program to eradicate polio by the end of the millennium. That deadline passed and another was missed in 2005 _ and polio still strikes about 2,000 people a year, mostly children.

At a WHO meeting this week, some leading experts asked a grim question: Is it time to abandon the goal of eradication and focus instead on containing the disease? The answer, for most, was no _ even though many had doubts.

"Many people wonder why we are spending all this time and effort on polio when there are much bigger problems," said Dr. Donald A. Henderson, who headed WHO's smallpox eradication program in the 1970s. Smallpox is the only disease ever to have been eradicated.

There is no question the polio eradication program has reaped rewards: Since it began in 1988, the incidence of the disease has dropped by more than 99 percent. But with the number of polio cases at a virtual standstill for the last five years, some experts worry that the campaign by WHO and its partners _ the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Rotary International and UNICEF _ is running aground.

"Even if things quiet down in the countries where we have problems, there will be another area that bursts into flames," said Dr. Ellie Ehrenfeld, who sits on the WHO Advisory Committee for Polio Eradication.

"We are living in a different world where I'm not sure what eradication means anymore," said Ehrenfeld, who was not invited to Wednesday's meeting.

Critics of the eradication program note smallpox was wiped out in a decade, while the polio campaign is entering its 19th year. WHO is seeking a $575 million budget for polio eradication for 2007-2008.

In a speech to participants, WHO Director-General Dr. Margaret Chan urged participants not to give up.

"We are facing our best and perhaps our last chance to eradicate polio," she said, adding that leaving the job unfinished would squander the more than $5 billion invested so far because it would open the way for a resurgence of the disease.

The four polio-endemic countries _ Afghanistan, India, Nigeria and Pakistan _ are also intent on ridding the world of the virus.

"We will spare no effort in eradicating polio," said Naresh Dayal of India's Ministry of Health and Welfare. This year, India will spend $286 million to fight the polio virus.

"While eradication is possible, we shouldn't even consider moving to a control strategy," said Dayal.