Giuliani Has No Real Chance With GOP Voters . . . or Does He?

Giuliani "looks like he can beat Hillary, make the party competitive again in the Northeast, competitive again in California and allow us to keep our strong electoral advantage in the South and Rocky Mountain states," the strategist said.

The former mayor's campaign team believes it has found a credible path to the nomination. Its foundation is a conclusion that while the overwhelming majority of Republicans differ with Giuliani on abortion, gay rights and gun control, a much smaller percentage of GOP primary voters -- perhaps no more than a quarter -- are single-issue voters who would never vote for him because of his views on those issues, a percentage borne out by the latest Post-ABC News poll.

Giuliani's advisers see that as a reason for optimism. They say those findings still leave a significant majority of the party beginning the campaign open to his candidacy, and they think the more he can emphasize his conservatism on issues such as taxes, welfare and crime, as well as his leadership on national security issues, the more voters are likely to back him.

"Rudy Giuliani and Republican voters are going to find a tremendous amount of common ground on a wide variety of issues important to Republican voters," said Mike DuHaime, Giuliani's campaign manager.

That raises the question of what it would say about the Republican Party if Giuliani were to become the nominee. Joe Gaylord, a GOP strategist close to Gingrich, said Giuliani's well-deserved celebrity appeal from his Sept. 11 response is a powerful attribute in the current environment. But he gave voice to something other Republican strategists are saying, which is that if Giuliani were to win the nomination, "this is a different Republican Party than I know."

Giuliani's advisers also challenge the assumption that he is doing well among Republicans because they remember his post-Sept. 11 job performance but know little about his positions on social issues. They believe that many Republicans are aware of both sides of the story and still find him an attractive candidate. Even some strategists in rival campaigns share that view, based on their own analyses.

Another factor may be working in Giuliani's favor. Many big states -- California, New Jersey and Florida among them -- could hold their primaries Feb. 5. If the former mayor survives early tests in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, his advisers argue, he will be positioned to do well in the larger states.

Social conservatives make up a significant portion of the GOP primary and caucus electorates in South Carolina and Iowa -- about two-thirds of South Carolina Republican voters oppose abortion, for example. The role of social conservatives is considered to be less decisive in New Hampshire, where low taxes are a bigger priority among GOP voters than abortion.

"I believe the compression [of the nomination] calendar helps us," DuHaime said.

All that assumes that Giuliani's early strength is not a mirage and that he finds a way to transcend his disagreements with conservatives. GOP strategists say he cannot change his positions, as Romney has done in some cases, but Giuliani's advisers believe he can reassure conservatives that he is not bent on a change in party orthodoxy.

On social issues, Giuliani has tried to shift the focus from his positions on abortion and gay rights to his argument that, as president, he would appoint federal judges akin to Supreme Court Justices Antonin Scalia and Samuel A. Alito Jr. His record in New York does not necessarily support that, according to an analysis recently published in the Politico, but a Giuliani adviser said the selection process there is quite different.

Giuliani's having been married three times could hamper his efforts to appeal to culturally conservative voters, although Gingrich faces the same issue if he enters the race. Similarly, Giuliani may have to answer for his past association with former New York police commissioner Bernard B. Kerik, who was forced to withdraw as Bush's nominee to be secretary of homeland security.

Other Republicans will be watching for signs that Giuliani's candidacy is built for the long haul. Right now, he trails McCain and Romney in building a national network of organizations. Giuliani has substantial fundraising appeal, but his first-quarter numbers, due at the end of this month, will be an indicator of whether he can tap his full potential. His skills as a campaigner will undergo continual examination.

"I think that people like him, and likeability is a big, big factor in presidential politics," a senior Republican strategist said. "Right now, I think his numbers reflect that. As you get closer to the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, likeability may give way to vote-determinative issues, like abortion."

Said Ayres: "I don't think there's any question those issues will come into play. The question is, will they get traction?"