Analysis: Sunnis on the Attack

Mohammed Salman, who lost his brother in Monday's car bomb blast, grieves at the scene of the explosion in central Baghdad, Iraq, Tuesday, March 6, 2007. A suicide car bomber turned a venerable book market into a deadly inferno Monday, killing at least 38 people. (AP Photo/Khalid Mohammed) (Khalid Mohammed - AP)

With the Mahdi Army off the streets, Baghdad has seen a sharp drop in the number of sectarian reprisal killings, which had left dozens of bullet-riddled bodies scattered across the capital each day for the past five months.

Indeed, many Shiites believe that the absence of Mahdi protection also has given Sunni extremists an opportunity to stage deadly attacks against them, such as the suicide bombing in Baghdad's center on Monday.

Al-Sadr has already complained that the security plan has failed to stop the Sunni bombings _ a veiled warning that his militia may return to the streets if the Americans and their Iraqi partners cannot restore order.

The gruesome slaughter of 18 policemen in Diyala province appeared aimed at telling Iraqis that they cannot count on the government to protect them. Last weekend, an al-Qaida-affilated group posted an online video showing the policemen kneeling as masked gunmen fired into the back of the captives' heads.

One Sunni leader, associated with an insurgent group with ties to Saddam Hussein's banned party, suggested the insurgents would go for high-profile strikes inside the capital for just that reason _ to cast doubt on the government's ability to protect people.

"What is happening in Baghdad is a new kind of tactics that comes prior to the tempest," he said. He spoke on condition of anonymity for his own security. "The attacks are expected to be harsher and more painful."

Another Sunni leader said Baghdad remains the center for "the resistance" and that the Sunnis would never abandon the capital to the Americans and the Shiites. He spoke by telephone to The Associated Press in Amman, Jordan, on condition of anonymity for his own security.

Nevertheless, U.S. commanders believe the Sunnis have no choice but to shift their focus outside Baghdad _ at least partially _ after thousands of Sunnis were driven from the capital last year by the Shiite militias.

"Sunnis understand they need to control areas around Baghdad if they eventually want to control Baghdad," Maj. Gen. Benjamin Mixson, commander of U.S. forces in northern Iraq, told The Associated Press. "And they don't have Baghdad right now."

In particular, the loss of sanctuaries in Sunni neighborhoods in Baghdad could make it tough for Sunni militants to sustain attacks inside Baghdad over the long term.

American forces have been raiding weapons and ammunition stocks in Sunni areas of Baghdad and its outskirts, depriving the insurgents of materials for car bombs.

U.S. troops have also been setting up bases in formerly mixed neighborhoods to allow Sunni civilians to return _ while trying to screen out insurgents among them.

Both Sunni insurgents and Shiite death squads are "preparing for the real battle for Baghdad _ which begins when the surge is over," Harling said.

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Robert H. Reid is AP correspondent-at-large and has reported frequently from Iraq since 2003.