With Earlier Primary, Calif. Reshapes Race

The same may apply to McCain, who has lost his lead in the national polls to Giuliani but is ahead of the former mayor in building a political infrastructure capable of competing in the early states and into a potential mega-primary.

But Giuliani strategists see Feb. 5 as potentially crucial to his prospects, particularly if he stumbles in early states such as South Carolina and Iowa, where he is out of step with Republican voters on abortion and gay rights -- particularly among religious and cultural conservatives, who play an influential role in those contests.

The move by California and other states reflects a trend in recent White House campaigns to schedule more and more contests in the first weeks of the nominating process. Many years ago, the nomination battles ran from late winter to early June every four years, with the winner sometimes remaining unclear until decisive primaries in California. But in recent presidential elections, the nomination battles have effectively been over in early March.

The acceleration has already claimed one victim. Former Iowa governor Tom Vilsack quit the race last month after running up a debt trying to extend the reach of his campaign far beyond his home state.

State officials such as Schwarzenegger, who may hope to see the kind of grass-roots campaigns of New Hampshire and Iowa run in their states, may be disappointed. Advisers to the leading candidates agreed that none of them will have the resources to run a significant number of television ads simultaneously in California, New York, Texas, Florida and other states targeting Feb. 5 contests.

The best-funded presidential candidates may raise $100 million or so by early next year for the primary season. Schwarzenegger spent more than $100 million to win reelection in California last year. Carrick said a standard weekly flight of ads covering California would cost about $2.5 million to $3 million, a sum that guarantees that candidates will be more dependent on free media coverage of the campaign to spread their message.

Terry Nelson, the chief operating officer for McCain's campaign, said states that are considering holding primaries on Feb. 5 account for a greater share of the overall population than the states targeted by the two presidential campaigns in the 2004 general election. "It's a very different situation for campaigns than in previous cycles," he said in an e-mail message from the campaign. "Every campaign will need to make scheduling and resource decisions in a changing primary environment."

Candidates are spending plenty of time in states such as California, mostly to raise money. Now they are adjusting their plans to include political events as well as private sessions with donors to help prepare for the primaries.

David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, said the campaign gathered 10,000 e-mail addresses at a recent rally in California. "The candidate may not make as many political visits and be on television for months and months, but we'll have the ability to do some organizational things on the ground," Plouffe said.