Democrats Speculate on Edwards
How Do Wife's Cancer, Decision to Stay in Race Affect Campaign?

By Anne E. Kornblut and Perry Bacon Jr.
Washington Post Staff Writers
Saturday, March 24, 2007

After an early flurry of good wishes directed toward the Edwards family, political operatives have begun the awkward process of asking an inevitable question: How will news of Elizabeth Edwards's cancer recurrence, and her husband's decision to continue campaigning for president, affect the race for the Democratic nomination?

Several Democratic operatives agreed that the couple's headline-grabbing appearance in Chapel Hill, N.C., on Thursday would probably boost former senator John Edwards at least temporarily, producing a groundswell of sympathy and raising his public profile.

"I can't help but believe this will focus a lot of attention on the Edwardses in this period of time that will, frankly, allow him to get better known in a way that's both strong and sympathetic," Democratic pollster Mark Mellman said. "But ultimately, it's a little hard to imagine that it changes the electoral outcome."

Campaign officials in both parties were reluctant to talk about the announcement. "It's unfathomable and unpredictable -- and the politics are unknowable," said David Axelrod, senior strategist to Democratic candidate Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.). "You just hope for the best for them."

Kathleen Sullivan, the outgoing chairwoman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, said she was "not sure it's ever appropriate to talk about the politics of the fact that someone in your family has a health issue."

"Does that mean that people won't talk about it? Probably not," Sullivan said. "I'm sure people are probably talking to some extent behind the scenes already."

Much of that behind-the-scenes talk focused on what would happen if Edwards were eventually forced to suspend or abandon his bid, putting up for grabs the roughly 15 percent of the Democratic primary electorate currently backing him. Advisers to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) have long said they would prefer having Edwards in the race to split the field and, specifically, divide the antiwar vote between Edwards and Obama.

Others marveled at the careful choreography of the Edwardses' Thursday appearance, which was as visually striking as any campaign event in Iowa or New Hampshire, down to the lapel microphones the couple wore.

And the Edwards campaign, fresh off the announcement, made a series of moves to demonstrate that it would move ahead at full speed. Edwards held a fundraiser in New York, and then the couple flew to Southern California, where they participated in another fundraiser last night. The campaign not only announced the hiring of a communications director for the critical state of Iowa but also released a detailed list of events both the candidate and his wife would attend. Elizabeth Edwards is scheduled to give a speech in Cleveland on Monday while her husband campaigns in Los Angeles the same day.

"Everyone is struck with sadness but encouraged by their upbeat attitude and determination to continue," said David Gottesman, a New Hampshire state senator who is backing Edwards.

The Edwards campaign incorporated news of the cancer recurrence into its campaign literature, inviting supporters to participate in house parties across the country on Wednesday in a letter that began: "First off, John, Elizabeth and all of us on the team have been deeply moved by the outpouring of good wishes following yesterday's announcement. It's good to know how many of you share John and Elizabeth's commitment to keep this campaign going strong."

Clinton incorporated the news into her campaign as well. In a "HillGram" sent to supporters late Friday, the Clinton campaign designated her own sympathetic quote about the Edwardses as its "quote of the week."

Edwards is not the first presidential candidate to be shaken by a spouse's illness. In 1971, Sen. Birch Bayh of Indiana withdrew from consideration for the Democratic nomination after the cancer diagnosis of his wife, Marvella.

Marvella Bayh died eight years later, after becoming a crusader against the disease and giving more than 175 speeches about the importance of prevention and early detection. She was 46.

Staff writer Michael D. Shear contributed to this report.