By Joshua Partlow
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, March 31, 2007; A10
BAGHDAD, March 30 -- Coming from Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, long known for his virulent anti-American sentiments, Friday's rebuke of the United States for instigating four years of poverty and violence in Iraq was nothing out of character.
Read at mosques in the southern Iraqi city of Kufa and in Sadr City, the Baghdad slum named for his father, Sadr's statement excoriated America for creating an Iraq that "is still without water, electricity, fuel, security or peace" and instructed his followers to "rise up" in support of Iraqi resistance to the "occupiers." Sadr called for a massive demonstration in the holy city of Najaf on April 9, the fourth anniversary of the day Baghdad fell.
But these days any statement by Sadr is read with a magnifying glass because the intentions of the author and his feared Mahdi Army militia have perhaps never been quite as inscrutable. U.S. officials insist that Sadr has fled to Iran, while his subordinates assert he remains in Najaf. Since the start of a new security offensive seven weeks ago, buoyed by the influx of thousands of new American and Iraqi soldiers into the capital, the prevailing narrative has been that Sadr's forces have laid down their weapons or fled the country, playing wait-and-see until he decides how to react. And with Sadr out of the country, U.S. officials say, his militia has shown signs of splintering into factions beyond his control.
"I think any organization that doesn't have leadership is bound to atrophy," said a senior U.S. Embassy official in Baghdad. "The reduction in violence has been rather significant."
But in the past week, Iraqi officials have warned that they see an increase in Mahdi Army violence, especially trademark reprisal killings, following a spate of car bombings and suicide attacks in mainly Shiite areas.
"Sadr's militia froze their activities for a while, but we have seen since about 10 days ago that they have restarted their violence," said Omar al-Jubouri, a Sunni adviser to Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi.
Other Iraqi officials, including some Shiites, say increased militia violence has occurred in the capital along Palestine Street, adjacent to Sadr City, along Haifa Street just west of the Tigris River, and in the neighborhoods of Jamiyah, Sadiyah and Shaab.
In a Pentagon briefing on Friday, Maj. Gen. Michael Barbero said that during the first six weeks of the security plan, civilian deaths have dropped by 30 percent compared with the previous six-week period, but when talking about the Mahdi Army, he observed that "we have seen some indicators of some increased activity, but it's a very dynamic situation and I'd be reluctant to draw a conclusion this early."
The U.S. official in Baghdad, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said there is speculation that the recent series of mortar and rocket attacks on the Green Zone may have been directed by Mahdi Army members.
"It makes sense that they'd be shooting at us now," the official said.
An Iraqi police official said American helicopters fired on Shiite militiamen east of Sadr City in the Sabeh district on Friday, killing 16 people and wounding 13 others. But Lt. Col. Josslyn L. Aberle said she had no reports of such violence.
U.S.-led forces said they captured another suspected trafficker of the armor-piercing explosives known as explosively formed penetrators. The arrest of the unnamed suspect occurred Friday morning during an operation in Sadr City, the U.S. military said.
The concern over militia activity was heightened by the string of bombings against Shiite targets this week, including two massive truck bombs that exploded in Tall Afar, in the north, and the bombings in a marketplace in the Shaab neighborhood of Baghdad and in the town of Khalis, north of the capital. In the past seven days, a total of 714 people were killed across Iraq, according to Brig. Gen. Saad Abdul Rahim of the Interior Ministry, making it the bloodiest week since the security plan began.
"High-profile attacks, especially suicide vests and vehicle attacks, have increased by about 30 percent" during the security plan, Barbero told reporters.
In Tall Afar, 18 city policemen were arrested in connection with the slaughter of Sunnis following the truck bombs, said Maj. Gen. Wathiq al-Hamdani of the Nineveh province police. Also Friday, the U.S. military said one U.S. soldier was killed and another wounded when a roadside bomb exploded as the soldiers were patrolling in southern Baghdad on Thursday.
Some Shiite religious leaders in southern Iraq say they are not worried about a Mahdi Army resurgence.
"We have connections and communications with Moqtada al-Sadr, and we don't see any escalation at this time," said Ali Bashir al-Najafi, the son of one of the four highest-ranking Shiite religious leaders. "In fact, we are seeing that there are a lot of raids and arrests of his followers but he is always calling for self-control and to cool down the situation."
It was difficult to find the calm in Sadr's Friday statement.
"Here is a woman crying over her son, and another weeping for his own," it read. "Unemployment has filled Iraq, and destruction, instead of construction, is increasing. The occupiers did not find it sufficient, and strove to isolate Iraq from the Islamic and Arab world. These countries do not pay attention to an Iraq that is on the verge of destruction."
Special correspondents Naseer Nouri in Baghdad and Saad Sarhan in Najaf and other Washington Post staff in Iraq contributed to this report.
