Battle Brews Over Rule By Military In Pakistan

"I thought that removing my uniform would dilute my authority and command at a time when both were required most," Musharraf explained in his memoirs last year. "Therefore, much against my habit and character, I decided to go against my word. I decided not to give up my uniform."

Observers here say it will take considerable pressure from the United States to get Musharraf to step down from his army post this time around.

"Musharraf can throw the constitution in the dust bin. So it all boils down to whether the U.S. will hold its ground," said Talat Hussain, director of news and current affairs for Pakistan's Aaj Television.

How the military feels about Musharraf and the elections is also a crucial variable. Those who have spoken privately with senior Pakistani officers say they are eager for a return to democratic rule.

"I have not met a military official who does not want an election in this country," a Western diplomat said. "There's a desire for legitimacy."

But the diplomat, who was not authorized to speak for the record, said that desire does not stem from any dissatisfaction with Musharraf and that the general remains popular among the top brass. "How could he not be?" the diplomat said. "He personally signed off on every senior promotion that has occurred over the past 10 years."

Still, there are some signs of dissent in the ranks.

Retired officers have grown increasingly vocal in recent weeks in their criticisms of Musharraf, with one group calling on the president to give up his uniform for the good of the country.

Hard-liners within the military establishment, who have long been unhappy about Musharraf's alliance with the United States on counterterrorism, have been particularly critical.

"The time is now for him to retreat," said retired Lt. Gen. Hamid Gul, a former head of Pakistan's powerful Inter-Services Intelligence unit.

Gul, who describes himself as a "moral supporter" of the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, accused Musharraf of using Pakistan's armed forces "against the people of Pakistan" and said it is only because of military discipline that they have not rebelled. "Musharraf's in a situation where he knows he cannot win," Gul said. "He must not reinforce the failure."

Leaders of Pakistan's civil society are saying much the same thing, though for different reasons. Since March 9, when Musharraf suspended the chief justice for unspecified abuses of office, lawyers and political opponents have taken to the streets arguing that the president is trying to squelch democratic institutions. The judge, Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, was expected to perform a key role in determining how the elections play out. He was also seen as a potential obstacle to any plan Musharraf might have to stay in uniform.

Since then, several leading Pakistani intellectuals have called on Musharraf to resign both posts and to oversee the elections but not run as a candidate.

Those plans are complicated by the fact that the political leaders considered most viable as candidates, Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, both live in exile. The two were the last civilians to lead the government. But their tenures are not remembered fondly by most Pakistanis, and since then, civilian leadership has atrophied even further, analysts say.

"Civil society and the civilian sector of the government are frankly incapacitated," said Ayesha Siddiqa, who has written a book about the growth of Pakistan's military. "My worst fear is that however this crisis unfolds, the army will have the last laugh."