Analysis: Funds Separate '08 Contenders

Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, center, greets supporters outside city hall in Elizabeth, N.J., Monday, April 2, 2007. New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, not seen here, endorsed Clinton's campaign for the Democratic nomination for president during the campaign event. (AP Photo/Mike Derer) (Mike Derer - AP)

DES MOINES, Iowa -- Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton and Republican Mitt Romney raised breathtaking amounts of money for their presidential bids in the year's first three months. GOP candidates Rudy Giuliani and John McCain and Democrat John Edwards also broke records. Barack Obama is expected to do the same.

In a campaign season of staggering sums, the tallies for the year's first fundraising quarter effectively separated the big-money contenders from the pack of more than a dozen Republicans and Democrats running for president.

"We now officially cut the fields in half," said Anthony Corrado of Colby College in Maine, who specializes in presidential elections and campaign finance. Even so, he cautioned against placing too much emphasis on the early money leaders. "There's still so much time left."

As history has shown, an early advantage doesn't always make for a party's nominee or a White House winner. Thus, the pacesetters of today will seek to continue beefing up their bank accounts while their lesser-known and lesser-funded rivals feverishly work to make up deficits.

The potential result: "We may see even higher fundraising tallies being reported in the months ahead," said Michael Toner, a former Federal Election Commission chairman.

That seems almost unfathomable given the take in the first quarter.

Combined, five of the six top-tier presidential candidates reported raising a jaw-dropping $90.5 million from Jan. 1 through March 31. The sum doesn't include Obama's tally; he likely will disclose it this week.

Ten months before the first primary votes are cast, the dollar chase has only just begun, and the initial sums indicate that several candidates could ultimately amass an unprecedented $80 million to $100 million campaign war chest heading into 2008. Strategists from both parties predict the wide-open presidential contest could end up surpassing $2 billion in total spending by all candidates and their allies.

The biggest reason for the incredible fundraising may be the dramatic changes in the primary calendars. Several states from New York to California want to hold their nominating contests earlier next year, which could effectively turn Feb. 5 into a national primary day. To compete everywhere, candidates will have to forgo the retail politicking that's done in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and court voters by running TV ads in expensive media markets. Thus, the enormous levels of fundraising.

The first-quarter figures for 2007 dwarf previous records.

Republican Phil Gramm of Texas brought in $8.7 million in 1995, while Democrat Al Gore of Tennessee collected $8.9 million in 1999. Gramm dropped out of the race before New Hampshire's 1996 primary, while Gore went on to win the 2000 Democratic nomination but lose the general election to George W. Bush in a contested outcome.

Regardless of such dour history for initial fundraising leaders, Toner said: "Early money does make it easier to attract later money, and every candidate would rather be in the position of being the fundraising leader than trailing."