By Dan Morse
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, April 19, 2007; T03
Maryland's population in the Washington region grew by only 0.5 percent from 2005 to 2006, the lowest rate in at least 15 years, according to Census Bureau figures released last month.
The flat figures underscore opposing trends. More residents are moving to the area from other countries, and more Marylanders are born than die. But at the same time, more are moving from inner-ring suburban counties -- spreading throughout the state or leaving it.
According to the census estimates, Maryland's total population last year was 5,615,727, the 19th-highest in the nation, which is the same ranking it has had since 1990. The state gained a little more than 26,000 people from July 2005 to July 2006, also an increase of 0.5 percent, partly because of migration from other countries.
During the same period, Maryland lost an estimated 25,610 residents, the highest total since at least 1990, to what's called domestic migration: movement to other states. As for movement out of specific counties -- regardless of where residents went -- the trend was dominated by changes in the inner-ring, or "first-tier," counties of Montgomery and Prince George's.
Nearby Maryland counties that are farther from Washington also reflected the trends, according to an analysis of the census data by the Maryland Department of Planning.
Outer-ring, or "second-tier," suburbs appear to have added residents from inner rings. And some of these outer-ring suburbs appear to have shed residents to a farther-out ring. Some people in Frederick County, for example, moved to Washington County, and some in Howard moved to Pennsylvania. Southern Maryland continued to have a net gain of domestic migrants, but the total was its lowest in at least five years.
Maryland's economy remains strong, said Richard E. Hall, secretary of the Maryland Department of Planning. This can be seen by the Marylanders who move to nearby states to buy larger houses on larger lots and commute back to Maryland jobs, he said.
"The people moving to Pennsylvania are not homeless," he said.
Hall's department's analysis of the census estimates can be found at http://www.mdp.state.md.us/msdc, under the "What's New" section. The data generally compare population estimates as of July 1, 2006, with previous years.
In some years in the past, Hall said, Maryland attracted transplants because its economy -- on a relative basis -- was stronger. That happened after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. With its steady supply of government jobs and increased spending on federal contract employees, Maryland took in residents from other states. From July 2001 to July 2003, an estimated 21,869 people moved to Maryland from other states, placing it among the top 15 in the nation in inward domestic migration and in the company of Southern growth states such as Georgia and western growth states such as Nevada.
Here is how the Maryland Department of Planning analyzed the recent census estimates for Maryland counties in metro Washington:
In Prince George's County, arrivals from other countries, coupled with the birth rate, couldn't make up for the number of residents who moved out, according to the census estimates. The county's total population decreased by an estimated 1,449 people, to 841,315.
The number of residents leaving Prince George's took a "huge leap," according to the Planning Department. It's unclear where they went. Planners await more detailed census statistics, due in the fall.
Prince George's officials said they aren't sure the Census Bureau estimates are correct. Joseph Valenza, an economist for the Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission, which tracks and plans development in Prince George's, estimates that the county's population grew by 7,000 residents. He based his work in part on residential permits.
In any event, the difference between his and the Census Bureau's estimates represents only 1 percent of Prince George's total population. Valenza sees the same broader trend of current residents moving from Prince George's and Montgomery counties.
In Montgomery County, the arrival of foreign-born residents, coupled with the birth rate, pushed the population to 932,131 last year from 927,405 in 2005, up 0.5 percent. The growth rate was Montgomery's lowest since 1979.
