Md. Suburbs' Population Growth Hits 15-Year Low

Maryland's population in the Washington region grew by only 0.5 percent from 2005 to 2006, the lowest rate in at least 15 years, according to Census Bureau figures released last month.

The flat figures underscore opposing trends. More residents are moving to the area from other countries, and more Marylanders are born than die. But at the same time, more are moving away from inner-ring suburban counties -- spreading throughout the state or leaving it.

According to the census estimates, Maryland's total population last year was 5,615,727, the 19th-highest in the nation, which is the same ranking it has had since 1990. The state gained a total of a little more than 26,000 people from July 2005 to July 2006, also an increase of only 0.5 percent, partly because of migration from other countries.

During the same period, Maryland lost an estimated 25,610 residents to what's called "domestic migration": movement to other states, the highest total since at least 1990. As for movement out of specific counties -- regardless of where residents went -- the trend was dominated by changes in the inner-ring counties of Montgomery and Prince George's. The inner-ring, or "first-tier," counties are those closest to the District.

Nearby Maryland counties that are farther from Washington also reflected the trends, according to an analysis of the census data by the Maryland Department of Planning.

Outer-ring, or "second-tier," suburbs appeared to have added residents from inner rings. And some of these outer-ring suburbs appeared to have shed residents to a farther-out ring. Some people in Frederick County, for example, moved to Washington County, and some in Howard moved to Pennsylvania. Southern Maryland continued to have a net gain of domestic migrants, but the total was its lowest in at least five years.

Maryland's economy remains strong, said Richard E. Hall, secretary of the Maryland Department of Planning. This can be seen by the Marylanders who move to nearby states to buy larger houses on larger lots and commute back to Maryland jobs, he said.

"The people moving to Pennsylvania are not homeless," Hall said. "People can afford that big house."

Hall's department's analysis of the census estimates can be found at http://www.mdp.state.md.us/msdc, under the "What's New" section. The data generally compare population estimates as of July 1, 2006, with previous years.

In the past, Hall said, Maryland attracted transplants because its economy -- on a relative basis -- was stronger. That happened after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. With its steady supply of government jobs and increased spending on federal contract employees, Maryland took in residents from other states. From July 2001 to July 2003, an estimated 21,869 people moved to Maryland from other states, placing it among the top 15 in the nation in inward domestic migration and in the company of Southern growth states such as Georgia and North Carolina and western growth states such as Nevada.

Here is how the Maryland Department of Planning analyzed the recent census estimates for Maryland counties in the Washington region:

Charles County traditionally has picked up new residents from Prince George's. Indeed, Charles gained 1,165 residents from internal migration, placing it third among Maryland counties. Still, the total of internal migrants was Charles's lowest since 1997. Overall, Charles's population growth slowed to its lowest rate since 1997.