As He Enters Race, McCain Appears to Be Off His Stride

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) left, meets with Henry Kissinger at the latter's Manhattan office. McCain's support has dropped in recent months.
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) left, meets with Henry Kissinger at the latter's Manhattan office. McCain's support has dropped in recent months. (By Stephan Savoia -- Associated Press)
By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, April 25, 2007

MANCHESTER, N.H., April 24 -- John McCain formally launched his bid for the White House on Wednesday in the state that vaulted him to national prominence eight years ago, and if a candidate from either party needs a fresh start, it is the embattled senator from Arizona.

Former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani has surged past McCain in national polls testing the strength of the Republican field. McCain's fundraising in the first quarter was anemic and his candidacy has been defined almost exclusively by his public advocacy for President Bush's unpopular troop-increase policy in Iraq.

"It's a far more competitive race than it was six months ago, but I think people continually have a tendency to jump to premature conclusions about political campaigns," said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster not working for any of the candidates. He added that McCain's "national stature is so great and the campaign's fundraising potential is so great that it would be a serious mistake to write him off prematurely."

Giuliani's rise has reshaped the GOP race in the first months of the year, but none of the major candidates has a strong grip on Republicans. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has struggled to rise above single digits in national polls. Recent stirrings by former senator Fred Thompson (Tenn.) have sparked enough interest that he is now competitive with Romney in national surveys.

Still, McCain has the most to prove at this point, and he may have limited time to demonstrate that he and his campaign are back on track. His advisers say their first priority is to raise $20 million or more by the end of June, to put to rest doubts about the senator's appeal to Republican donors.

The shakeup of McCain's fundraising operation began last month when former congressman Tom Loeffler (Tex.) was put in charge of the organization. It continued yesterday with Mary Kate Johnson replacing Carla Eudy as finance director.

Another goal is to broaden the definition of McCain's candidacy, which has been singularly focused on Iraq. "Because the war was going badly, that defined John more tightly than anyone wanted," said one official, who requested anonymity in order to speak freely about internal campaign issues.

McCain has sought to diversify his message with recent speeches on the economy, energy and global climate change. But Iraq remains the overriding issue hanging over his candidacy.

John Weaver, McCain's chief strategist, said the senator remains well positioned to compete for the nomination, noting that McCain is tied or leading in polls in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. He also said McCain has better state organizations than his rivals have. "We wouldn't trade places with anybody," he said.

McCain will restart his campaign in New Hampshire, the state that made him a national power in the Republican Party with his victory over Bush in the 2000 primary. He will then go to South Carolina, where he was thrashed by the Bush forces, and to Iowa, which he skipped during his first campaign. After a stop in Nevada, he will end with a rally in his home state of Arizona.

"I think that without a doubt the American people, beginning [Wednesday], are going to see the most experienced candidate in either party and the only one who's willing to put principle above politics to get this country moving forward," Weaver said.

McCain's support for the war has made him far less popular among independents and Democrats, according to Washington Post-ABC News polls. Over the past 11 months, the percentage of Democrats who say they definitely will not vote for McCain has risen by 30 percentage points; among independents, it has jumped by 16 percentage points.

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