As He Enters Race, McCain Appears to Be Off His Stride

Among Republicans, however, the war has had only minimal impact on McCain's popularity. The percentage of Republicans who said they will definitely not vote for him in the general election rose from 20 percent in May 2006 to 25 percent in the most recent poll. But among Republicans, the percentage who said they definitely will vote for him has risen by 15 percentage points.

Strong antiwar sentiment fueled Democratic victories in New Hampshire in November. McCain could suffer if independents who supported him there in 2000 turn against him, or simply vote in the Democratic primary.

Still, Tom Rath, a New Hampshire Republican strategist and Romney adviser, thinks McCain is well positioned in the state. "He's got a great organization," Rath said. "The people who were with him remain with him. . . . If there's any place that's a firewall, it's New Hampshire."

McCain's problems in the party stem from other factors. He has sought to repair relations with parts of the conservative base, particularly religious conservatives, whose leaders he attacked during his 2000 campaign. He spent time last year courting such leaders as the Rev. Jerry Falwell, but much of the party's conservative base remains suspicious of him.

GOP strategists said that McCain's efforts were half-hearted, and that he sought rapprochement with Falwell but not with the Rev. Pat Robertson. They also said he made a tactical error in declining to speak at meetings of high-profile conservative groups over the past several months.

"I think this is kind of a fascinating case study in how not to reach out to the base, and I would argue they're not even trying anymore," said one strategist, who requested anonymity in order to assess McCain's campaign candidly.

In the most recent Post-ABC News poll, McCain trailed Giuliani among white evangelical Protestants, a remarkable finding given that Giuliani supports abortion rights and gay rights. Among self-identified socially conservative Republicans and independents who lean toward the GOP, Giuliani and McCain were essentially tied.

McCain's advisers counter that among the major GOP candidates, he has the best record of opposing abortion, and that over time that will pay off. But he is at odds with many conservatives on immigration because of his support for a path to legal status for the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants.

But they argue that it was never McCain's hope to become the darling of social and religious conservatives -- only to get enough votes among those Republicans to win the nomination. "McCain's goal wasn't to become their candidate," a campaign official said.

McCain's courtship of the Bush GOP establishment has caused strains as well.

"The primary challenge for Senator McCain is that all his life he has been a rebel, a maverick who has stuck his finger in the eye of the establishment," Ayres said. "Today he is running as the candidate of the establishment, and that suit doesn't fit particularly well."

Weaver argued that such criticism is a media creation.

"That's a suit that you guys are trying to impose upon him," he said. "He's exactly the same man I met in 1997 and felt compelled enough to join this effort. He's no different today. He calls them as he sees them."