First-Round Picks, Who Needs 'Em?
Joe Gibbs, like George Allen long before him, knows a secret. High first-round picks in the NFL draft may be the most overvalued commodity in sports. They promise a hit-the-lottery aphrodisiac -- the chance to pluck a superstar out of thin air. As a result, NFL teams intoxicate themselves with their own obsessive scouting and evaluating. Finally, after months of rumination, they "fall in love" with one college prospect, Gibbs says, often grabbing a player who is more likely to flop than become a star.
"Drafting is one of the hardest things in the world to do. It's what's in here that matters," said Gibbs earlier this week, tapping his chest. "You can't weigh it or time it. How do you tell how motivated a player is? And we know money can change people.
"How do you 'project' [with any certainty]? You got me," Gibbs said. "But we see it over and over. [Teams say], 'We got this thing nailed.' Yet Joe Montana, one of the greatest ever, was a third-round pick."
Right now, the Redskins face a large but delightful dilemma. The only benefit of Washington's miserable 5-11 record last season is that they get the No. 6 overall pick in Saturday's draft. It's a strange world when the NFL's highest-paid team can stumble into such a prize simply by playing worse than almost anyone dreamed possible. Now, they face a new question: Will they be smart enough to do the right thing -- and get rid of that tempting, treacherous sixth-overall pick?
Gibbs won't say it, but his first tenure as Redskins coach demonstrates that he knows what to do. In 12 seasons from 1981 through 1992, he had no first-round pick at all in eight seasons. But it didn't keep him from going to four Super Bowls. Then, he and GMs Bobby Beathard and Charley Casserly preferred to use a flashy first-round pick to trade for a current proven NFL player, as Allen did throughout the 1970s. Or they'd "trade down" to get multiple lower picks. In the NFL, it's standard procedure to turn a sixth-overall pick into three picks: for example, a first-rounder near No. 20 overall, plus a high pick in the second and third rounds. Or to accept a first-round pick even lower in the draft order, if you can acquire an established veteran as well. We'll illustrate the theory later. But, for heaven's sake, Redskins, only use that No. 1 pick yourselves as a last resort.
At the moment, many believe the Redskins are torn between using their pick on either Louisville defensive tackle Amobi Okoye, 19, or LSU safety LaRon Landry. Whenever such thoughts arise, let the Redskins remember these scary names from the past: Yazoo Smith, Ray McDonald, Bobby Wilson, Desmond Howard, Tom Carter, Heath Shuler, Michael Westbrook, Andre Johnson, Kenard Lang, Rod Gardner and Patrick Ramsey.
All were No. 1's. All but two were in the top 17 picks -- touted as 10-year starters and potential all-pros. Except, of course, for those like Howard (fourth overall), Shuler (third) and Westbrook (fourth), who were supposed to go straight to the Hall of Fame.
With few exceptions, the Redskins' entire history demonstrates how many top picks are dismal disappointments. And, just as important, how unnecessary a multitude of No. 1 picks are in building a great franchise. The pattern started here in '62, when the Redskins traded the draft rights to the great Ernie Davis of Syracuse for Bobby Mitchell of the Browns. Mitchell integrated the Redskins and has a bust in Canton. Davis died of leukemia and never played in the NFL.
Since then, the Redskins have become the most valuable franchise in American sports. But No. 1 draft picks had little to do with it. Since '64, only two Redskins No. 1 picks have been truly great players, Art Monk and Darrell Green. And they were picked 18th and 28th.
In the last 38 years, the Redskins have done without a first-round draft pick 22 times! Since World War II, the only two Redskins regimes that consistently traded away their No. 1 draft choices -- dealing them for veterans or trading down for multiple draft picks -- were the two that produced Super Bowl teams.
"People say we don't like the draft. We love the draft," Gibbs said. "But we've been very aggressive in the past. To benefit the team, we did make trades."
In his second term, Gibbs has kept his No. 1's -- using high picks for gifted but erratic Sean Taylor (fifth overall) and Carlos Rogers (ninth), as well as quarterback Jason Campbell (25th). The jury is out on all of them. But Taylor and Rogers have a long way to go to justify their elite draft positions.