First-Round Picks, Who Needs 'Em?

A perfect illustration of the proper kind of deal is one like the Redskins' proposal to the Chicago Bears that surfaced a month ago. Then, the Redskins offered their first-round pick for established linebacker Lance Briggs and the Bears' first-round pick (31st overall). Such a trade would ensure the acquisition of a known commodity while still offering the opportunity for a high pick who might become a standout.

Earlier this week Gibbs said, "Sometimes [things] catch fire at the end."

What could the Redskins get for their first-round pick? In other sports, there's no exact answer. In the NFL, there is. In the late-1980s, Cowboys Coach Jimmy Johnson invented a Draft Pick Value Chart. Now, almost every team worships the hallowed Chart. It's even on the NFL Web site. The No. 1 overall pick gets 3,000 points. The last pick in the last round gets less than one point. The Redskins' sixth-overall pick is worth 1,600 points.

Few mock this ludicrous pseudo-precision. Teams, like the Redskins, who work 14-hour days evaluating players just can't bear to admit that there are so many unknowable variables in a decision that's so important. As a result, many NFL teams can be tempted into almost any swap of draft picks if they can justify it by saying they swindled somebody out of 50 Chart points.

What can you get in exchange for 1,600 points? Here's one example: the 21st, 35th and 68th overall picks in the draft are worth 800, 550 and 250 points, respectively. That's a first-round pick and a very high pick in the second and third rounds.

A look at the last six years of NFL drafts shows why it's probably a good idea. Working back from 2006, here are the sixth overall picks: Vernon Dean, Adam "Pacman" Jones, Kellen Winslow, Johnathan Sullivan, Ryan Sims and Richard Seymour.

That list should give both fantasy league geeks and GM's a shiver. That's one superstar (Seymour), one solid starter, one total washout, one player who's banned from the league next season and two guys who've barely played because of injuries.

Now, look at the 21st overalls: Nate Clements, Daniel Graham, Jeff Faine, Vince Wilfork, Matt Jones and Laurence Maroney. Clements just got an $80 million contract, the largest ever for a defensive back. Maroney is a star Patriots running back. Everybody else is a starter, with Graham and Wilfork top-flight at tight end and nose guard for the Broncos and Patriots, respectively.

All in all, the 35th overalls may be just as good: Alge Crumpler, Charles Tillman, Kalimba Edwards, Igor Olshansky, Reggie Brown and Washington's Rocky McIntosh. An all-pro tight end, a Super Bowl defensive back for the Bears, two quality defensive ends, a budding star wide receiver for the Eagles and the Redskins own Linebacker of the Future.

And what can you get way down at 68th? That's where the Bears drafted Lance Briggs. Oh, irony.