GOP Presidential Hopefuls To Face Off in the New West

Said a senior Giuliani campaign adviser: "People are going to look at . . . how many congressional districts can I play in in less expensive media markets?"

While California may have a better chance of being a big factor in the race, top strategists for the leading GOP candidates are focused intently on Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, where they say early voting could set in motion an unstoppable momentum for the winners of those states.

If one candidate wins all three of those, voters in California and the other states could quickly fall in line on Feb. 5 behind someone they see as a winner. That is largely what has happened in most elections in the state.

"At the end of the day it's going to be momentum. Who has the momentum out of the early primary states?" said Steve Merksamer, a California lawyer who was chief of staff to Republican Gov. George Deukmejian in the 1980s. California, he added, is "completely up for grabs, but at the end of the day it's going to come down to who has the best organization."

The early indication is that that honor may belong to Giuliani, who has lined up a half-dozen congressional endorsements, including those of Reps. Ed Royce, George Radanovich and David Dreier. He has also won endorsements from some key conservatives in the state legislature. McCain has begun to build an organization in the state, signing on the state's former secretary of state.

In a late March poll by the Public Policy Institute of California, Giuliani led with 33 percent, McCain followed with 19 percent, former House speaker Newt Gingrich had 14 percent and Romney trailed with 7 percent.

But veteran California Republicans said the state's liberal reputation -- and the fact that it is governed by a centrist Republican in Arnold Schwarzenegger -- does not necessarily mean that Giuliani and McCain will do well in the Republican primary, which is closed to independents and Democrats.

"There's no question it skews very conservative," said Rob Stutzman, a GOP consultant who served as Schwarzenegger's communications director. "I reject any notion that because California is a blue state, the moderate GOP candidates will do well out here in the GOP primary."

Stutzman said, for example, that Romney could target pockets of conservative voters who care deeply about immigration and social issues. Many of those voters live inland along rural parts of the state's I-5 corridor. Others live in historically Democratic districts that were ignored when the state was an all-or-nothing affair.

"It really makes it a lot more interesting," Stutzman said. "It makes it different than most years, that's for sure."