Panel Calculates Cost of Global Warming Fix

Levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere -- produced by power plants, industry, automobiles, trucks, airplanes, burning forests, some agricultural activity and methane from decomposing waste -- have risen by 70 percent since 1970, the climate panel reported in February.

If nations do not begin to control emissions better, that level of heat-trapping gases is projected to increase by an additional 25 to 90 percent by 2030, with potentially calamitous results, especially in poorer nations. The effects would include a surge in ocean levels, the disappearance of a large number of species, abrupt climate changes in tropical zones and possibly large migrations of displaced people.

The panel's reports are based on research by a broad range of scientists, and the resulting policy assessments were negotiated by government representatives until they reached a consensus. Some climate experts said that process led to conservative documents that do not take into account the most recent discoveries -- such as findings that the Arctic ice cap appears to be melting at a much faster rate than described in the February IPCC report.

The two biggest producers of greenhouse gases are the United States and China, and both objected to many conclusions of the draft report sent months ago to the 120 participating nations.

Connaughton's concerns yesterday about the economic effects of an aggressive campaign to reduce greenhouse gases reflected one aspect of the Bush administration policy on climate change. Another was highlighted by Harlan L. Watson, head of the U.S. delegation in Bangkok, who said the report affirms "the importance of a portfolio of clean energy technologies consistent with our approach."

Other participants, including Stavros Dimas, E.U. environment commissioner, emphasized the report's conclusion that even dramatic steps would be technically and economically feasible.

"There is no excuse for waiting," he said. "It is now time for the rest of the international community to follow our lead and commit to ambitious reduction targets."

The panel's report said that energy efficiencies and many new low-carbon technologies are within reach but that governments are not spending enough on research.

"Government funding in real absolute terms for most energy research programs has been flat or declining for nearly two decades, and is now about half of the 1980 level," the report said. Officials said that since the United States first called in 1990 for voluntary rather than mandatory efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, U.S. emissions have increased by 28 percent while federal funding for climate change research has declined significantly.