A New Pitchman -- and a New Pitch

Like Emanuel, Cole is more of a policy wonk than most political operatives are, but when it comes to recruiting House candidates, he's all about winning. He's a pro-war social and fiscal conservative, but sources say he hasn't pushed conservatives such as Jim Ryun (Kan.) or Richard W. Pombo (Calif.) to try to reclaim their House seats, because he thinks more moderate candidates might fare better. Cole says his mother was an intuitive pol who would "go to the mountaintop and sniff the air and talk to the Great Spirit" before making decisions, but Cole is a numbers guy, and he says most of his recruits are the same way.

"We're not getting recruits with the ideological fervor of 1994," he said. "It's more professionals who are making professional calculations: They're looking at Republican seats with Republican infrastructure, and they might take a shot."

But they might not. Last year, Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-Fla.) nearly lost his race to replace disgraced former congressman Mark Foley (R-Fla.) to a well-regarded state legislator named Joe Negron, even though Negron jumped into the race a few weeks before Election Day, and voters who supported him had to vote for Foley. It's a solid Republican district, and the NRCC has named Mahoney one of the five most vulnerable Democratic incumbents; in an interview, Negron ticked off several votes Mahoney has cast that could cause him problems at home.

Cole thought he had persuaded Negron to run again, and Negron said the prospect of serving in the minority made the race more attractive. "I'd love to be up there talking about how we can't afford those peanut subsidies," he said. But he ultimately decided the time wasn't right.

"That was really surprising," Cole said.

Instead, Cole spent half an hour recently chatting with Tom Rooney, a 36-year-old lawyer who's an heir to the Pittsburgh Steelers fortune. In an interview, Rooney talked a lot about Ronald Reagan but not much about Bush. "I do think we will get the majority," Rooney said. "I don't know if we'll get it back in 2008."

Almost all the Republicans interviewed for this article said that the party will have a new face in 2008, and almost all think it will be a more popular face than Bush's. Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-Ohio), who faces a rematch with a challenger who almost beat her last year, said her votes on Capitol Hill may not matter much on Election Day. "We will be defined not necessarily by what we do, but by our presidential nominee more than anything else," she said.

But Democrats say they won't let Republicans run away from their support for Bush. "Whether Republicans like it or not, George Bush is on the ballot in 2008, up and down the ballot," Emanuel said. "Every presidential year is a referendum on the incumbent."

Cole is a history buff, and he thinks history will see Bush as a courageous president who helped transform the Middle East. "Remember, Truman was unpopular, too," he says. But then he remembered his political history. "You know, that's not a very happy analogy for us. After Truman, the Democrats lost the House and the White House in 1952."

Support for Iraq War

In 1952, the Democrats were saddled with Korea. Now the Republicans have Iraq.

Cole's district is a military stronghold where supporting the war and the president is no political liability. On a trip home this month, Cole received two standing ovations at a dinner for first responders at Tinker Air Force Base. The emcee introduced Cole as "a man who goes to sleep every night and wakes up every morning thinking about how he can make this country better."

Cole says there's no doubt that the Bush administration has made mistakes in Iraq, but he's still convinced that Americans want to win, and that demands for withdrawal are bad politics and bad policy. He thinks that every day that Americans hear about Pelosi and her antiwar rhetoric -- and especially her recent trip to Syria, which Cole called "a PR disaster of the first order" -- is a good day for House Republicans.