Brown May Loosen U.K. Ties to Bush

Brown's close friend and economic adviser, former U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, who has visited Brown in his Scottish home town of Kirkcaldy, once described him as "without peer among the world's economic policymakers."

Now, as Brown prepares to take power, analysts say he must prove himself in foreign affairs. Brown has been a fervent supporter of development, anti-poverty and HIV-AIDS programs in Africa, but largely absent on other major international issues.

"Gordon Brown plays his cards very close to his chest," said Anthony King, professor of British government at the University of Essex. "Given that he's been in public life for 20 years, it's remarkable how little people think they know about what he's likely to do next. His pronouncements on Iraq are deliberately vague; you're not meant to know what he thinks. He makes the Sphinx look voluble."

Neal Lawson, a former Brown adviser who now runs Compass, a center-left political advocacy group in London, said Brown's foreign policy is a closely held mystery: "I don't think it's even clear who's advising Gordon on foreign policy," he said. "Nobody seems to know."

None of the analysts interviewed said they anticipated major or immediate foreign policy changes under Brown. Blair has already announced that Britain will reduce its troop presence in Iraq to about 5,000 by this summer, and the analysts say Brown is not likely to make dramatic changes to that strategy.

They say Brown is likely to continue a long-standing British commitment to seeking solutions to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It is unclear how Brown will handle Iran's nuclear ambitions, although Naughtie said Brown might be more likely than Blair to get involved in direct talks with Tehran.

One of Brown's priorities will be to distinguish himself from Blair, whose once-soaring approval ratings now stand at 28 percent, largely because of Iraq and the widely held British perception that Blair has been "Bush's poodle." At the same time, the analysts said, Brown will be careful not to damage relations with Britain's most important ally.

"The Labor Party does expect some clear blue water between Brown and Blair in order to start the healing process after Iraq," said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, a policy group. "But Brown will have a subtle balancing act in the near term. He's not going to be a poodle; he is going to assert British interests. But there will be no open breach with the White House."

The analysts said Brown's relations with the White House could change if a Democrat is elected to succeed Bush. "These are Brown's closest political friends in the world," Leonard said. "He shares their positions, interests and worldview."

But the analysts also noted that Brown is a pragmatist. Naughtie said, for example, that Brown has close relations with Paul D. Wolfowitz, the embattled World Bank president and a leading architect of the Iraq war.

"Brown is not an ideologue," Naughtie said. "But I do think that he will be acutely aware of the damage that Blair has suffered from appearing to have surrendered his judgment to Washington. Brown will have to play this much more cleverly."

While Brown has been a successful steward of Britain's economy, he suffers from a broad perception that he lacks Blair's charisma and instinctive connection with people. He also has been criticized for being controlling and intolerant of views different from his own. One former aide recently called Brown's management style "Stalinist."

Brown was a bookish whiz kid from a mining and linoleum-producing town in Scotland. He entered the University of Edinburgh at 16, one of the school's youngest-ever students. A rugby injury when he was a teenager left him blind in his left eye; when he gives speeches, he uses notes printed in extra-large type. Friends said the injury only increased his determination to succeed.

Brown devoted himself fully to work, and was nearly 50 before he married Sarah Macaulay, a public relations executive, in 2000. Their first child, Jennifer, was born prematurely and died in January 2002. They had a son, John, in 2003. A second son, James Fraser, was born last summer and suffers from cystic fibrosis. Friends have said his daughter's death and son's illness have focused Brown more on life beyond his mountain of policy papers.

With sweaters and open-necked shirts, and a smile that often looks as though his wife made him wear it, Brown has attempted in the past year to present himself as more relaxed. But his serious side still dominates.

"Brown is much more cautious than Blair," Naughtie said. "Brown is a man who always has a plan. He is a thinker who goes through everything. Once he comes to a conclusion after considering everything, he is sure he can't be wrong."